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Paul Sztorc on Twitter: "It seems that [Mircea Popescu ...
The problem with PMBs, ie "Perpetual ... - Mircea Popescu
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The 1 Bitcoin Show- Vlad Costea talks Lightning Network ...
Questions about technical / political / economic / "game theory" aspects of BU & ViaBTC. (1) With BU, can non-mining (full) nodes influence blocksize? (2) Should ViaBTC open-source their private relay network software? (3) Which is more anti-fragile: a ViaBTC/BU future, or a Core/SegWit future?
What do you think of the influence of non-mining node operators under Bitcoin Unlimited's model for voting on maximum block size? Do you think that non-mining nodes signaling for a certain size would truly motivate miners to not exceed that size?
[Have you] Thought about having that incorporated into BU (even giving access to BU miners)? I ask because looking at some of your pool's first-job times, it looks your system is quite impressive and it'd be a massive slap in the face for core's RN et al
~ u/yeh-nah-yeh Should we be concerned that ViaBTC will have a lot of hashing power - and they will be using a private, close-source relay network? There is probably a lot of discussion we could have on this topic. I like ViaBTC - but it seems strange that he did not address this point very much in his AMA. Are we going to have to "trust ViaBTC" now and "trust" their closed-source private relay network software? This seems like this would be a point of centralization / vulnerability in the network - where ViaBTC could abuse his power, or other players could attack ViaBTC, and harm Bitcoin itself. How does BU "signaling" work - in a non-mining (fully-validating) node, vs a mining node. One question quoted above from the AMA was:
I understand there are multiple parameters involved in "signaling":
EB = excessive blocksize
AD = acceptance depth
(Are there other parameters too? I can't remember.) Here is a Medium post by ViaBTC where he proposes some strategies for setting these parameters, in order to safely hard fork to bigger blocks with BU: Miner Guide: How to Safely Hard Fork to Bitcoin Unlimited https://medium.com/@ViaBTC/miner-guide-how-to-safely-hard-fork-to-bitcoin-unlimited-8ac1570dc1a8#.akijaiba7 Could we have some more discussion on how "signaling for" blocksizes works - under various possible future scenarios (optimistic / pessimistic... likely / unlikely / black-swan)? There are various future scenarios (after the network has eventually / presumably forked from Core to BU) where people could use BU's parameters to realize certain results on the network. (1) What are some of those future scenarios?
economic / political / technical events which could abruptly affect Bitcoin network traffic
already: Chinese currency (Yuan) dropping against US currency (dollar)
already: India demonetizing Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes
likely: major ETF getting approved in the US (Winklevoss or other)
possible: additional spam attacks on the Bitcoin network
...from white hats (testing the system; pointing out vulnerabilities; making a statement)
...from black hats (another coin; a bot-net; pro-Core and/or anti-BU users; state / corporate actors; Mircea Popescu?)
black swan: some government does something weird & unexpected impacting financial markets and/or Bitcoin
... Trump administration : some high-level person (who's actually just an alt-right blogger that Trump hired to run some major governnent department) makes some crazy pronouncement / ruling about the internet / about the markets (FCC eliminates network neutrality? T-Bill sale fails?)
... Fed : rate hike? more helicopter money?
... Europe : Deutsche Bank collapses? Merkel / ECB decides to rescue / not rescue them? bail-ins?
... China : China bans Bitcoin again? releases their own crypto? imposes new capital controls? Bitcoin price goes moon and CNY crashes so Chinese govt imposes emergency ban on all traffic across Great Firewall - cutting off 80% of mining from the West?
... Russian hackers? some 400 pound guy on his bed? 4chan? whoever took down a big chunk of the DNS a few weeks ago?
(2) What are some possible (typical, atypical... benevolent, malicious... altruistic, selfish... defensive, proactive... pessimistic, optimistic ) BU parameter-setting strategies which people might adopt in those scenarios?
Which software is more safe / more dangerous... more anti-fragile / more fragile in the above scenarios?
users "signaling for" blocksize on the network using parameters in Bitcoin Unlimited?
(3) Can we start putting together a comprehensive strategic "threat (and opportunity) assessment" on those various possible future scenarios / strategies - ranking various threats (and opportunities) in terms of impact as well as probability?
How would the network react to threats/opportunities using BU (with most mining still concentrated in China, and maybe also concetrated on ViaBTC's private closed-source relay network)?
How would the network react to threats/opportunities using Core/SegWit?
(4) A lot of the discussion about BU is among miners - mostly in China - and maybe later many miners will be using the ViaBTC pool - which is also offering a cloud mining option... so perhaps it is normal & expected that most of the discussion about BU parameters revolves around miners.
What about non-mining (fully-validating) nodes in a BU world?
What about SPV clients and servers in a BU world?
Do non-mining (fully-validating) nodesalso have some role to play in helping to set the blocksize, and helping to secure and grow the network, based on setting BU parameters? Or with BU, only the miners decide?
Can non-mining (fully-validating) nodes prevent blocks from getting too big?
How would SPV clients and servers work in a BU world? Can they actively participate in helping to decide blocksize?
(5) Does BU give miners "all the power" - and so blocksize goes to 2 MB, 4 MB, 8 MB - and then some users from low-bandwidth geographic regions can no longer run full nodes at home? (6) If we have a period of 1-2 weeks where "bigger blocks" get mined (eg, 2 MB, or 4 MB), and then we decide we don't like it, can everyone "signal for" smaller blocks after a couple of weeks of bigger blocks? Can the chain reverts to a smaller blocksize, after a brief, one-week "bulge" of bigger blocks? (7) If we have an isolated incident where a single very-big block gets appended to the chain & accepted to a sufficient depth (say, an 8 MB block or a 32 MB, that some miner somehow managed get accepted on the chain)
Can the chain revert to smaller blocks after an isolated incident of one very-big block?
Or are we "stuck" with that bigger blocksize forever, simply because one got mined in the past?
(8) Remember BitPay Adaptive Blocksize? One of the nice things about it was that its consensus-forming mechanism was based on taking a median of what people were signalling - and the median is a more robust statistic (harder to fake/sybil?). Can any ideas from BitPay Adaptive Blocksize (eg, using the median) be incorporated into Bitcoin Unlimited? These are just some initial questions. Other people probably have many more. Hopefully we can have some good discussion and analysis, so we can keep the network safe & growing.
In this post from Mike Hearn on the mailing list he seems to suggest that the fork will go ahead even with less than 50% of the hashing power. He claims that if all merchants, exchanges and users are moving to this chain then it will be the main chain even if it has less computational power. SPV nodes only need a forced checkpoint... But the majority of the hashrate can now perform double spends on your chain! They can send bitcoins to exchanges, sell it, extract the money and build a new longer chain to get their bitcoins back. Are companies like Xapo and Coinbase really so stupid that they would go along with this without complete consensus? I dont think so. If the miners think that Bitcoin is doomed because of this change, then this is what they will do to maximize their profits. But you could always roll back the blockchain to revert the double spend and have your saviors Gavin and Mike do a checkpoint for you on every block. Better yet just let them sign the blocks for you and you wont have to worry about that pesky mining! Or you could change the hashing algortihm... Oh, but wait... so much capital has gone into the mining industry so this aint gonna happen. The sheep of reddit who worships Gavin and Hearn really need to understand the importance of consensus... Nothing of this is obviously going to happen, but just the fact that Mike suggests it is painful to watch. I thought he was more competent than that. Mike Hearn is really the Mircea Popescu of the "pro increase blocksize" debate.
What bitcoin-based investment funds are out there, and how are they doing? I know about these:
Bitcoin Investment Trust (BIT), a bitcoin-backed investment fund by Grayscale/Secondmarket. It is traded on the OTCQX "pink sheet" marketplace, under the ticker "GBTC". They are supposed ot hold some 140'000 BTC.
Pantera Bitcoin Partners (PBP), another bitcoin-backed investment fund by Pantera capital. I don't know how they are traded; perhaps privately by Pantera.
XBT Tracker One, an electronically traded "note" (bond?) pegged to the BTC price, issued by by a Swedish group somehow connected to KnC, a mining and ASIC manufacturing company. It is traded (in Swedish krona, and now in EUR) on the Swedish subsidiary of NASDAQ (nasdaq.se). Their outstanding notes are equivalent to ~17'000 BTC.
Global Advisors Bitcoin Investment (GABI), another private investment fund by the company of the same name, based in Jersey (UK). IIRC, it is a diversified investment fund that may hold bitcoins but also other traditional assets. I have not heard much of them lately
Exante, another investment group based in Malta. Not sure whether they are still active.
The Falcon group had a bitcoin-backed investment fund too, but closed it last year for lack of interest.
Mircea Popescu may also have some bitcoin-based investment funds, IIRC. (This is DEFINITELY NOT investment advice)
08-01 23:11 - 'Yeah I heard it was a pretty small number of active people that wanted the DAO fork. / For my money, I'd say it's okay for bitcoin to go slow. I can understand people feeling pretty upset if you have a lot of money in mining it...' by /u/walloon5 removed from /r/Bitcoin within 9-14min
''' Yeah I heard it was a pretty small number of active people that wanted the DAO fork. For my money, I'd say it's okay for bitcoin to go slow. I can understand people feeling pretty upset if you have a lot of money in mining it and you think that a lot of value for bitcoin comes from it being able to scale way up. And I'm not saying I like at all every word written by Mircea Popescu, but I read what he writes about bitcoin and when I think of the kind of mind that can see a weak coin and destroy it, he's like the level of mind I think would do it. He's stated that if bitcoin grew it's blocksize he would just attack it relentlessly, so you'd have to figure out how to get people like him on board from a game theory / value perspective - eg PROVE good value in the fork, show that it's not reasonable to attack it, makes better sense to join, etc. So I'd say if bitcoin hardforks, they would want to go to some extreme measures to prevent doublespends, have huge consensus in place. I think that old coins in the hard fork would be in an interesting situation. Maybe you'd have to fork again a later year to leave old coins behind so that they couldn't hurt you, not sure. On the other hand, I think that bitcoins have been distributed about as fairly as you can distribute any cryptocurrency, now that they've been invented. So old coins have that legacy value. EDIT: Anyway, here's MPs warning and I read and reread it whenever I wonder if bitcoin should hardfork: [link]1 ''' Context Link Go1dfish undelete link unreddit undelete link Author: walloon5 1: t*ilema.**m*2015/if*you-g***n*a-bitc*i*-fork*irr**p*ctive-w*ich-sc*m*e*-*roposes-it*you-*i**-*ose-your-bi*coi**/ Unknown links are censored to prevent spreading illicit content.
But Mircea Popescu doesn’t agree. The controversial owner of MPEx is, if nothing else, a true believer in the future of bitcoin. And he’s willing to put his money where his mouth is. A lot of money. 1000 BTC, in fact, which is just over $630,000 at current rates. Posting on popular betting site BitBet, Popescu proposed the following high ... Mircea Popescu Talk to the bimbo. tam I like everything what is said and I support it a lot. I am glad to be here and to... cindt fuck me; Mircea Popescu Mda. aetc nuca vine que te vaya bien y que te... dure la francesa, bre... dar nici macar... Mircea Popescu Bwahaha what a fucking fabulous article. Mircea Popescu Wtf's a pubg. Home Strategy For Bitcoin The 1 Bitcoin Show- Vlad Costea talks Lightning Network, BTC media, Romania, Mircea Popescu, more! August 31, 2019 admin Strategy For Bitcoin 13 Tel Aviv, Israel- Vlad Costea writes for Bitcoin Magazine where he covers all sorts of hardcore Bitcoin matters. limit my search to r/Bitcoin. use the following search parameters to narrow your results: subreddit:subreddit find submissions in "subreddit" author:username find submissions by "username" site:example.com find submissions from "example.com" url:text search for "text" in url selftext:text search for "text" in self post contents self:yes (or self:no) include (or exclude) self posts nsfw:yes (or ... We could for instance estimate the total dollar value of the Bitcoin mining network somewhere in the 10 - 20 million USD range given that the total output is 20.483 Thash/s as of this writing, the GPU cost per Mh/s is in the 0.3 - 1 USD range and the FPGA cost per Mh/s is in the 0.5 - 1 USD range. By this formula a 5 Mh/s bond (a particularly popular denomination) would pay out weekly : mircea ...
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