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Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people.
The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets.
Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.

Stock Market Crash

The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially.
All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity.
Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses.
Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely.
So, why inflate the economy so much?
Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value.
Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat.
Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis.
Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.

Economic Analysis of Bitcoin

The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero.
Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology.
Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value.
Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block.
Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer.
Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed.
Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public.
A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved.
Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely.
Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.

Trading or Investing?

The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.

Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin

Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
  • Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.
  • VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
  • RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
  • Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.

Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin

Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.

Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin

Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
  • Yearly Lows (last seven years): 1/1/13, 4/10/14, 1/15/15, 1/17/16, 1/1/17, 12/15/18, 2/6/19
  • Monthly Mode: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 12
  • Daily Mode: 1, 1, 6, 10, 15, 15, 17
  • Monthly Lows (for the last year): 3/12/20 (10:00pm), 2/28/20 (7:09am), 1/2/20 (8:09pm), 12/18/19 (8:00am), 11/25/19 (1:00am), 10/24/19 (2:59am), 9/30/19 (2:59am), 8/29,19 (4:00am), 7/17/19 (7:59am), 6/4/19 (5:59pm), 5/1/19 (12:00am), 4/1/19 (12:00am)
  • Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
  • Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
  • Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
  • Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points
Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows.
Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram.
1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21
2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm
In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year!
Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market.
Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020.
The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:
  • 2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
  • 3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
  • 5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
  • 5/26/20 – hashrate difficulty halvening
  • 11/14/20 – stock market low
  • 1/15/21 – yearly low for BTC, around $8528
  • 8/19/21 – end of stock bear market
  • 11/26/21 – eighteen months from halvening, average peak from halvenings (BTC begins rising from $3000 area to above $23,312)
  • 4/23/22 – all-time high
Taken from my blog: http://aliamin.info/2020/
submitted by aibnsamin1 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

BitOffer Institute: Emergency Step of Cutting Interest Rate Taken by FED, Another bull for Bitcoin?

BitOffer Institute: Emergency Step of Cutting Interest Rate Taken by FED, Another bull for Bitcoin?

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The Federal Reserve on Tuesday took the emergency step of cutting the benchmark U.S. interest rate by half a percentage point, an attempt to limit the economic and financial fallout from the coronavirus. Since the financial crisis in 2008, the reduction of this time was the largest, which was considered as the bailout to the market. Even though, America Stock Market did not buy it. After the news released, the Dow Jones Index dropped by nearly 800 points (3%). In the short term, the decline of the America Stock Market has decreased by more than 10%.
Powell held a news conference following the central bank’s decision to cut overnight interest rates by half a percentage point. He said the Fed “saw a risk to the economy and chose to act.”
“The magnitude and persistence of the overall effect on the U.S. economy remain highly uncertain and the situation remains a fluid one,” he said. “Against this background, the committee judged that the risks to the U.S. outlook have changed materially. In response, we have eased the stance of monetary policy to provide some more support to the economy.”
Under the background of COVID-19, the fear caused the capitals to be called back from the market, which pushed the market to face the shocking situation, especially the stock market of Europe and America. As the stock market has been through the worst month since the last financial crisis, what kind of investments are investors able to follow while the stocks and golds performed unexpectedly?


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Lucian, the Chief Analyst of BitOffer, pointed out “The interest cut this time was the proof of that how serious the problem was. The last emergency interest reduction happened on Oct 8th,2018 because of the economic recession caused by the Collapse of Lehman Brothers. So, it is obvious that FED holds a serious attitude to the current situation they meet.
First, COVID-19 brought new challenges and risks to the global economy and made the financial market turbulent. In addition, it does significant impacts on the global industry chain and the operation of the supply chain, which also does harm to the economy of the United States. However, the interest cut was helpless to the problems of the supply chain.
Besides, the recent US Treasury yields have created the lowest level in the past 100 years. If FED continues cutting the interest, it would drop down the US Treasury yields further. Once it happens, the central banks of other countries and the institutions would start selling US Treasury. Including but not limited to the America Stock Market, when investors are worried about the economy of the United States, the capitals will choose to act in the way of “Cash Out” and seek other investments such as gold and Bitcoin to hedge the risk.
Due to the reason that digital assets like Bitcoin have not been adopted in the portfolio of worldwide institutions, its time-sensitive to react to the interest reduction on Tuesday was limited. The effect on the Bitcoin market should happen in the medium and long term.
Moreover, the 3rd halving of Bitcoins is expected to happen in May. On the occasion, the block reward of Bitcoin Mining will be reduced from 12.5 to 6.25. The scarcity will directly lift up the value of Bitcoin. In other words, the upcoming halving of Bitcoins is the catalyst to push the Bull market to come out.


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Why Do People Prefer to Buy Cryptocurrency ETF than buying Bitcoins?
Bitcoin, which owns the most recognition in the cryptocurrency industry, theoretically doubles the price after halving. Also, the upgrade of the miner machine is able to double the price due to it increases the budget. Due to the miner machine upgrade, the improving of hash rate makes the possibility of mining disaster become low. So, after the halving, the bitcoin price is likely to increase by 4 times. Takes the bitcoin price $9,000 as the basis, it may rise to a level that more than $30,000.
If you buy Bitcoins on the spot trading market and hold it, when the bitcoin price rises to $30,000, you would earn a 3-times payoff. However, if you buy Bitcoin ETF launched by BitOffer, the highest payoff would be able to reach 17 times due to its automatic positions adjustment mechanism and its compound calculation, which means that its ROI would be much higher than that of Bitcoins on the spot trading market. For investors who prefer long-term investments, Bitcoin ETF has become a much better choice.


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submitted by Bitoffer_Official to BitOffer_Official [link] [comments]

Plz Help. Have I found a Discrepancy in Slush Pool?

I may have found a bad discrepancy in Slushpool's reporting... Can you guys cross-check it for me? I'm not happy to say this, and rather than accuse anyone, I'd just like to get some second opinions. If I'm wrong, I ask redditers to politely explain why this discrepancy appears to be happening. After all, maybe it's my math, or logic, or facts missing, etc... But if there is a discrepancy, it could affect major things like payouts, theoretically... and I mean in a major way... retroactive for years.
My concern starts with the average speed per worker of the bitcoin mining pool, on Slushpool.
As I write (12/26/17 Pacific time, around 11pm), Slushpool currently says it is running at 1.587 Eh/s. https://slushpool.com/dashboard/?c=btc
The website also says there are 62810 workers in the pool. I want to calculate the speed per worker. Speed per worker should be expressed in Th/s, so to reduce it to common terms, we need to convert the pool's global Eh/s to Th/s... which means to multiply the Eh/s by 10002... one thousand, squared.
The speed of Slushpool was 1.587 Eh/s, so we set it up like this: 1.587 * 1000 * 1000 = 1587000 Th/s. †
Now to get from Slush Pool's total Th/s to Slush Pool's average Th/s per worker, divide total by number of workers...
(1587000 th/s) / (62810 workers) = 25.26 Th/s per worker.
So I got the number I was looking for... excellent. You might say "Okay, interesting, so the average worker is mining at 25.26 Th/s. NP. Cool."... But what you SHOULD be doing here is asking HOW ON EARTH ANY WORKER IS MINING AT 25.26 TH/S, and even moreso how THE AVERAGE worker mining on Slush Pool is mining at that speed. The fastest miner on the market is the s9, and it mines at 14 Th/s. So how is the average miner on Slush Pool more so much faster than the very best miner on the market, today? The S9, The BEST MINER on the MARKET, today, is only 56% the speed of the AVERAGE miner on Slush pool.
Now, maybe somebody built a specialized frankenminer in a laboratory... maybe someone uncovreed a secret cache of Spondoolies SP50 miners... which was designed to mine at a whopping 110th/s, for example... but Spondoolies went bankrupt in 2016, and production was halted. Even before then, they didn't make too many sp50's, and they were restricted to special clients.
So... assuming it isn't legacy Spondoolies sp50's doing this mystery hashing, how else can we explain the high h/s on Slush Pool? Maybe someone got really good at overclocking... maybe they cooled the hell out of their miners, so they can run at super fast speeds. Would that really be enough to yield 25.26 Th/s? Is that credible? Is it possible or plausible? ... Even if some miners are achieving that incredibly blazing speed, would the AVERAGE miner be achieving it?
Don't forget about how the AVERAGE includes all these micro miners, as well... misfits like the u3, gridseed orb, blade miner, s1-s5, running in a dorm rooms, etc. There are hobby miners who would pull the average h/s (per miner) on Slush Pool down alot.
So, how is it possible that the pool is running at this speed? Better asked... IS it possible, and if so, how? And if it's not possible, then what are we looking at?
If the pool operator is overstating the total hashing power of the mining pool, then are payouts being reduced according to a false ratio, where the divisor in the ratio is artificially large? The payouts are based on that... they depend on it. So are the payouts on Slush Pool being artificially shrunken? If the total Eh/s of the pool is really much lower than what they say, then I'd have to suspect that it is. But I am absolutely NOT saying for certain that this is what's happening. It's what my suspicious anxiety closet suggests could be happening... but I really don't know. That's why I'm asking you guys to help sort this all out, and explain to me whether these concerns are misguided or not. I'm asking a question, here... not throwing accusations. Frankly I think it is more likely that I've made an error of some kind, either miscalculating or possibly unaware of some vital detail, than that the net's oldest and most respected mining pool is doing something like this. It is very likely there's a good explanation for the apparent discrepancy, but I do not know what it is... so again, I'm asking you, reddit, if you can evaluate this reasoning and comb it for flaws, math errors, weak factual assumptions, and/or whatever else might explain what I'm seeing, or if you can confirm the math and logic framed in the questions I've asked. Thanks everyone, and have a happy new year.
† (Here is a site which tells the relation) https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/9219/what-is-the-difference-between-kh-s-mh-s-and-gh-s/21498 (here is a site with a calculator which goes from E~ to T~. Although it does not have Eh/s and Th/s, you can use Ehenry to get the same mathematical result. https://www.translatorscafe.com/unit-converteen/inductance/5-4/gigahenry-terahenry/
submitted by mercucio007 to MiningPoolHub [link] [comments]

[uncensored-r/CryptoCurrency] Will crypto mining kill polar bears?

The following post by Vertigo722 is being replicated because some comments within the post(but not the post itself) have been openly removed.
The original post can be found(in censored form) at this link:
np.reddit.com/ CryptoCurrency/comments/80mbpb
The original post's content was as follows:
Bitcoin mining uses as much electricity as a small country. Many people hate it for this reason, its one of the more popular arguments against crypto currencies. Will crypto mining kill polar bears? I think not. I think it will help save polar bears. "Bear" with me.
Germany already produces a significant part of its electricity from renewable energy: wind and solar. As we all know, these sources are intermittent and seasonal, as is demand. The result is inevitably temporary and seasonal overcapacity. This isnt just theoretical, energy prices in germany and the UK where effectively negative last Christmas: http://www.businessinsider.com/renewable-power-germany-negative-electricity-cost-2017-12//?r=AU&IR=T
As explained in the above article, this isnt a rare freak occurrence, its expected and this will have to be become much, much more common if as a society, we want to transition away from fossil fuels. To do that we need more renewable energy. A study I saw for Germany calculated they needed at least 89% more capacity, just to handle peaks loads. That also implies an incredible amount of overcapacity when demand isnt anywhere near peak, or when supply is above average due to favorable weather. Storing excess renewable electricity in most places is very expensive and inefficient. So much so that its rarely even done. This is a major problem. Renewable energy may have become cheaper than other forms per KWH, but who wants to invest in solar or wind power when you cant sell your energy to the grid for much of the time, and especially during those times where it actually produces the most energy?
I know what you're thinking. Mining wont help here, because mining intermittently, a few hours per day or a few days per week is something that seems crazy today; but thats only because today, the overall cost structure of a (bitcoin) miner is heavily titled towards writing off hardware. Particularly anyone paying retail prices for mining asics. This will change, because of two related reasons:
1) mining efficiency will taper off.
Mining asics have been progressing rapidly, from using 20 year old process technology to absolute state of the art now. This has resulted in million fold improvements in efficiency in just a few years, which in turn lead to hardware investments that needed to be recovered in a few months or even weeks (!) before they were obsolete. This cant and wont last. 12nm and 7nm asics are about to be produced, or being produced. It doesnt get better than that today, and it wont for many years to come. 5nm wont become available before 2020 at the earliest, and likely later than that, especially in meaningful volume. More over, Moore's law is hitting a brick wall (you cant scale transistors smaller than atoms), and only states that transistor density increases. Not that chips become more efficient or faster. This is already becoming evident. Compared to a few years ago, CPUs have gained more cores (ie, more transistors), but a 4 year old highend cpu like a Haswell core i7 runs at comparable speeds, and comparable power efficiency with today's chips. All this means that these state of the art mining asics will remain competitive for many years, and can be written off over many years. But they will still consume electricity during those years, which will then become the primary cost.
2) Mining is still too profitable (for anyone making their own asics) and mining hardware is therefore still too expensive.
Miner hardware production rate simply hasnt yet been able to keep up with demand and soaring bitcoin prices. This leads to artificially low mining difficulty, making mining operationally profitable even with expensive electricity, and this also leads to exuberant hardware profit margins. You can see this easily, just look at the difficulty of bitcoin. When the price dropped by 70%, did you see a corresponding drop in difficulty? No, no drop at all, it just keeps growing exponentially. That only makes sense because we are not yet near saturation, or near marginal electricity costs for bitmain & Co. Its not worth it yet for them to turn off their miners. Its not even worth it yet for residential miners. Another piece of evidence for this, is bitmains estimated $4 billion profit. But mining is a zero sum game, over time, market forces will drive hardware prices and the mining itself to become only marginally profitable. We're clearly not close to that -yet. You might think so as a private miner, but thats only because you overpaid for your hardware.
Lets look at todays situation to get an idea. An Antminer S9 retails for $2300 and uses ~1300W at the wall. If you write off the hardware over a year, electricity and hardware costs balance out at an electricity price of $0.2/KWH. Anything below that, and hardware becomes the major cost. But how will that evolve?
Based on some experience in the industry, I recognise the high startup costs of developing an asic, particularly on an advanced process, but my guess is the BOM for a miner like the S9 without PSU is below $200; depending on yields and binning, and the wafer prices they can negotiate with TSMC, it could be as low as $100. The fan might literally be the most expensive part. As difficulty keeps going up, demand for asics will eventually taper off, and market prices will head towards marginal costs. Let say an S9 equivalent at that point gets sold at $400 leaving bitmain a healthy margin; that would mean each year a miner would spend 5x more on electricity than hardware. Hardware will remain competitive for more than a single year though. Say you write it off over 3 years, now you're spending 15x more on electricity than the hardware. Intermittent mining with free or virtually free electricity 50% of the time will become feasible long before that, hardware costs will become almost a moot point and mining even a few hours per day of a few days per week might actually make sense.
The result is that crypto mining will give green energy producers a way to efficiently monetise local, seasonal or intermittent excess energy production. Instead of paying people to use their excess electricity, they will be paid for it, and they will earn pretty much the global average electricity rates for it, as mining difficulty will adjust to around that level. That means investing in renewable energy is now much more lucrative, because you dont have to worry about what to do with your excess production. It may even make sense if you cant sell a single KwH to the grid. But anything you can sell for a price above your mining profits, will be extra.
By now, I will hopefully have convinced you of the viability of mining with renewable energy; but its not only viable, it will become the only way to do it profitably. Renewable energy at the source is already cheaper than any carbon burning source. Even in Quatar, they install solar plants because its cheaper than burning their own gas. Its transporting and storing the electricity that usually is the problem. Gas can easily be transported and stored. But mining doesnt need either. You can mine pretty much anywhere and anytime. All you need is a few containers and an internet connection.
Moreover, mining is a zero sum game, a race to the bottom. As long as its profitable for green energy providers to deploy more hardware (which will be true as long as they can at least recover their hardware investment), difficulty will go up. Until it becomes unprofitable for anyone who has to pay for his electricity. No one gives oil, coal or gas away for free, so anyone depending on those sources of electricity, can not remain competitive. If bitcoin price were to go up so much, that there isnt enough renewable electricity production in the world to accommodate the hashrate, bitcoin miners will simply install more solar and wind farms. Not because of their ecological awareness, but because it makes the most financial sense.
TL:DR, deploying under utilised excess renewable capacity is both very expensive and very necessary if we want to save polar bears. Financing for large scale green energy projects will either have to come from tax payer money to subsidise excess electricity, or it will come from crypto mining.
BTW, if you wonder what Blockchains LLC is going to do with 61K acres near Tesla's factory; my guess is solar plants and crypto mining. Expect to see renewable energy development and crypto mining to merge in to one single industry. Check out envion to get a glimpse of this future. Im not endorsing their token as an investment, I havent researched it at all, but the market they are going after is a very real one and its about to explode.
submitted by censorship_notifier to noncensored_bitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Mining Syndicate Review – Does It REALLY Work? What is bitcoin mining ?  How to mine bitcoin ?  Best ... Mining calculator monero - That is Mining calculator Percent Yield Crypto_Fred - YouTube

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