PUNTO DE PARTIDA PARA NEWBIES EN INVERSIONES. POR DONDE ARRANCAR?
¿Para quién es este post?
Este post está pensado para los que tienen plata y no saben que hacer, los que como mucho hicieron plazos fijos o comprar dolar en home-banking o ir al blue. La idea es dar una breve introducción, que sea llevadera, no muy técnica y en términos sencillos, de que cosas hay que tener en cuenta ahora que se decidieron adentrarse en el mundo de las inversiones. Espero que después de leer esta introducción, les sirva para poner en contexto las preguntas que se tienen que hacer, la información que necesitan investigar y capacitarse, antes de efectivamente ponerse a invertir. Y de yapa por haber leído hasta acá, se llevan el primer consejo: no invertir sin tener bien claro en qué nos estamos metiendo! Antes de arrancar: no confundir inversiones bursátiles con finanzas personales. Las finanzas personales abarcan toda la gestión de ingresos, inversiones, ahorros y gastos en la "microeconomia" de una persona. Acá nos vamos a centrar solamente en la parte de inversiones, en el marco de las finanzas personales.
Primero unas definiciones básicas
Vamos a arrancar con algunos conceptos que pueden parecer medio abstractos sobre el temas de dinero, para después tener una base y poder ir directo a la cuestión de inversiones. Valor tiempo del dinero Lo primero que tenemos que entender es el valor tiempo del dinero, un concepto muy sencillo pero que pocos lo tienen formalizado. Por suerte, es muy fácil de incorporar y de aprender. Puesto de manera sencilla y sin entrar en muchos números: la misma cantidad de dinero vale mas HOY que mañana. Y cuanto mas tiempo pasa, menos vale el mismo dinero. Vale aclarar que no estoy teniendo en cuenta conceptos como devaluación o inflación en este momento, simplemente que el mismo dinero hoy, va a valer mas que mañana. Veamos este concepto con un ejemplo sencillo. Cómo ordenarias según orden de preferencia las siguientes opciones?
Recibir $100 hoy
Recibir $100 mañana
Recibir $100 en 1 mes
Creo que esta claro que el orden dado, es el orden de preferencia de cualquiera de nosotros. La cuestión se pone interesante cuando empezamos a jugar con el monto vs el tiempo. Por ejemplo:
Recibir $100 hoy
Recibir $200 mañana
Recibir $1000 en 12 meses
En este caso ya empiezan a jugar otras variables. Que tan valioso es para mi el dinero hoy vs el dinero en el futuro? En esta valuación entran en juego conceptos que no voy a explicar aca pero son muy interesantes de profundizar, como el concepto de NPV (Net present value o valor presente neto), IRR o TIR (Tasa Interna de Retorno) y tasa de descuento (Discount factor). Riesgo Hay muchas maneras de definir riesgo, pero en este contexto vamos a quedarnos con una definición mas estadística para que sea fácil de entender. El riesgo es una medida de que tanta certeza vamos a tener de nuestro retorno esperado. Por ejemplo, el concepto de una tasa libre de riesgo es un caso extremo: una inversion de rendimiento fijo y conocido de antemano, que, como el nombre lo implica, se considera que tiene no tiene riesgo. Esto se traduce en que el rendimiento esperado es igual al rendimiento efectivo (o realizado) que vamos a tener al final de la inversion. En el caso de inversiones globales, se considera a los bonos del tesoro de EEUU como libre de riesgo. En nuestro caso, podemos tomar a los plazos fijos de los bancos (o mas correctamente los instrumentos de renta fija del tesoro argentino). Una vez establecido el nivel base de riesgo 0, la escala de riesgo va variando a medida que consideramos distintos instrumentos, e incluso dentro de los instrumentos, hay varios atributos para analizar. Para intentar predecir la dispersión alrededor de nuestro retorno esperado, lo que se suele hacer es basarse en la volatilidad histórica del instrumento a analizar. Para dar algunos ejemplos, una acción de un banco Argentino tiene mas riesgo que una acción de un banco de EEUU. Esto se puede analizar coyunturalmente, o se puede mirar las variaciones históricas recientes de los precios. Otra manera de pensar el riesgo, es adoptar la postura de que el mercado es "eficiente" y que los retornos esperados ya reflejan los mayores riesgos. Es decir: a mayor retorno esperado, mayor riesgo. Esto quiere decir que hay menos probabilidad hay de conseguir ese retorno esperado. Dependiendo del instrumento, estos retornos esperados se pueden calcular facilmente como en instrumentos de renta fija (métricas como TIR, paridad, etc) o pueden ser mas difíciles de calcular como en renta variable, aunque tenemos distintos ratios (o múltiplos) que podemos analizar para comparar el precio de una acción con sus fundamentals (que se desprenden de los balances presentados). Creamos o no en la eficiencia del mercado para pricear (determinar el precio de algo) las cosas, es una buena heurística a tener en cuenta que retornos altos suelen estar acompañados de riesgo alto. El corolario de esto es siempre ser escépticos de retornos altos de bajo riesgo, promesas de "plata fácil" y ese tipo de oportunidades. Retorno real vs nominal Una aclaración que nos debemos es distinguir entre retornos reales y retornos nominales. Los retornos nominales son los retornos directos obtenidos sin ningún ajuste. Por ejemplo, invertimos $100 en una acción que en 5 años se convirtieron en $200. Eso nos da un retorno del 100%. Sin embargo, esos $200 probablemente tengan menor poder adquisitivo, ya sea por devaluación (midiendo contra otras monedas) o inflación (midiendo contra bienes). Por ejemplo, si sabemos que en esos 5 años la inflación fue del 50%, nuestro retorno real fue del %50 entonces. Es muy importante siempre medir nuestras inversiones teniendo en cuenta los retornos REALES. Particularmente en pesos, donde la perdida del poder adquisitivo es tan tangible. De hecho, mi recomendación es medir las inversiones en monedas mas estables como el dolar, por defecto. Como dato de color, la inflación del dolar es de aprox. 2% anual.
Receta básica para una inversion
Que componentes tiene una inversion? Estos son los ingredientes mínimos que la componen:
Capital: Monto de dinero para invertir
Retorno: Cual es el % o monto de ganancia sobre el capital que esperamos obtener. Puede ser aproximado.
Riesgo: Medida de que tan probable es que consigamos el retorno esperado. Difícil de estimar exactamente!
Horizonte/plazo: Cuanto tenemos que dejar la plata para maximizar las chances del retorno esperado
Instrumento: El método mediante el cual vamos a invertir
Liquidez: que tan rápido/costoso es entrasalir
Moneda: en que moneda podemos entrasalir de la inversion
Fricciones: gastos/comisiones/impuestos a tener en cuenta
Dados estos ingredientes, vemos que algunos son variables que podemos definir nosotros y otros son interdependientes. Veamos algunos ejemplos:
Si queremos obtener una ganancia de 100 pesos en un plazo fijo con tasa 1% mensual, el resto de las variables quedan prácticamente predefinidas: el riesgo es casi nulo, y por ende el retorno es conocido. El capital es función del retorno en este caso, tenemos que colocar 10k pesos. El horizonte es 1 mes. La liquidez es nula, no podemos retirar el dinero hasta que no termina nuestra inversion. Y la moneda es pesos. Prácticamente no hay gastos ni impuestos que nos importen.
Quiero invertir 10k USD y obtener una rentabilidad de 5% anual durante 2 años. En este caso, un instrumento adecuado para ese tipo de inversion podría ser un bono corporativo en USD. La moneda es en dolares y el hecho de tener un plazo de inversion corto con un rendimiento de 5% anual, nos fija que el riesgo que vamos a tener que correr va a ser moderado (si comparamos con la tasa libre de riesgo o con otros bonos que rinden similares tasas). La liquidez es baja porque los bonos corporativos no se negocian mucho, y el costo de salir antes puede ser moderado, dependiendo del instrumento en sí. Los gastos van a ser los de operar, comisiones al broker, hay que investigar los impuestos respecto a este instrumento.
Si mi objetivo es duplicar un capital de 25k pesos en un mes: para eso podemos utilizar opciones sobre acciones locales, intentando capturar la tendencia en algún papel que hayamos estudiado. Necesitamos conocer en profundidad el instrumento (en este caso opciones) y saber que estamos corriendo un riesgo alto, que vamos a pasar, con alta probabilidad, por periodos de grandes perdidas, incluso llegando a perder todo nuestro capital. La liquidez es alta, podemos salir cuando querramos, pero con alto costo, dada la importancia del timing. Las comisiones van a ser altas, impuestos a renta financiera también.
Depositar mis ahorros en algún instrumento para generar rentabilidades minimas hasta necesitarlos, sin asumir mucho riesgo. Podemos buscar un fondo común de inversion en USD que invierta en bonos LATAM de mas bajo riesgo. O llevar nuestro dinero al exterior e invertir en un ETF de bonos globales o del tesoro de EEUU de bajo riesgo. Vamos a tener nuestra inversion en USD, liquidez alta aunque puede ser costosa si involucra mover fondos en el exterior debido a las comisiones. El riesgo es bajo. Hay que tener en cuenta los impuestos, especialmente por la moneda y el hecho de ser en el extranjero en el segundo caso.
Como se puede apreciar, en estas tensiones entre todos estos (y otros) atributos, hay juegos entre retornos esperados y "primas" (costos) que hay que pagar. Por ejemplo, por operar un instrumento poco liquido, tenemos la "prima de liquidez" que se refiere a los costos extra de por ejemplo, comprar un instrumento mas caro porque no hay vendedores a un precio mas barato. Otro ejemplo es la "prima de inversiones extranjeras", donde aumentan nuestros gastos de movimiento de fondos e impositivos. Incluso hay limitaciones con respecto al capital: algunas inversiones son poco viables si tenemos muy poco o demasiado capital para invertir, ya sea por mínimos requeridos o porque no hay liquidez suficiente en el instrumento que nos interesa.
Los instrumentos mas comunes que debemos aprender
Aca simplemente voy a listar los instrumentos que deberíamos tener en nuestra caja de herramientas de inversión, con un breve comentario de cada uno explicando que usos tiene y de que se trata.
Plazo fijo: rendimientos fijos a plazo conocido. No necesita mucha explicación. Hay que tener mucho cuidado con las tasas nominales vs las tasas reales para ver si convienen o no.
Dolar: refugio de valor por excelencia, pero como el plazo fijo hay veces que conviene y veces que puede ser una mala opción para nuestro perfil.
Cauciones: inversion prácticamente libre de riesgo, como un plazo fijo pero de mas corto plazo. Rara vez las tasas reales son positivas, pero son buenos instrumentos para los que tienen dinero ocioso en la bolsa o para los que quieren apalancarse (invertir con plata prestada) en el corto plazo
Fondos comunes de inversion: dejo un link con introducción. Son instrumentos muy flexibles para inversiones mas pasivas (lo opuesto a inversion activa, en la que debemos estarle encima de manera constante, dia a dia por ej.). Son todo un mundo, ya que al estar compuestos por distintos instrumentos (por ej. acciones, o plazos fijos, etc) cada FCI requiere su propio análisis.
Criptomonedas: activos descentralizados y anónimos que pueden ser útiles para especular o para hacer transacciones por fuera del sistema. También como moneda de cambio o de inversion. Buscar posts sobre CeFi (Centralized finance) y DeFi (Decentralized finance) en el sub, podemos poner nuestras criptos a trabajar en prestamos tipo plazo fijo o en fondos con rendimientos variables. Ejemplos: Bitcoin, Ethereum.
Stablecoins: son criptos que suelen estar atadas de alguna manera u otra al valor del dolar o algún activo mas estable, haciéndolas mas atractivas para perfiles mas conservadores. Igual que las criptos, permiten usarse para cambiar de moneda o inversiones, asi como para hacer transacciones y fondeos. Ejemplos: DAI, USDT.
Acciones (renta variable): nos permite participar en las ganancias de una empresa. Alto riesgo, aunque hay matices dependiendo de la empresa, sector, pais, contexto, etc. Puede ser acciones locales o podemos operar en el exterior directamente y acceder a acciones de todo el mundo.
Bonos (renta fija): son instrumentos con flujos de fondo conocidos. Los riesgos son mayormente de default (escenario de no pago) y de crisis de confianza que pueden hacer bajar los precios (puede ser oportunidad de compra o punto costoso de venta para el tenedor).
CEDEARs: son instrumentos locales en pesos pero que representan acciones del exterior. Nos permite invertir en una gran colección de empresas grandes, mayormente de EEUU pero también de Brazil y las empresas argentinas mas grandes (Mercado Libre y Globant). Tienen ventajas en costos operativos para inversores minoristas en Argentina.
Opciones: son contratos de compra/venta a precios prefijados. Hay infinidad de estrategias, desde lo mas especulativo y de alto riesgo, a cosas muy conservadoras como usarlo como seguro contra la baja de una acción que tenemos en cartera. Por ejemplo, podemos pagar una prima (un costo fijo) por asegurarnos de limitar las perdidas de una acción que tengamos en caso que baje, durante un plazo de tiempo. También nos permite apostar a la baja de una acción! Y apalancarnos, en el sentido de que podemos ganar exposición a mas capital del que tenemos, multiplicando las subas (y las bajas, claro).
ETFs: instrumento que solo se puede operar en el exterior. Como los Fondos Comunes de Inversion, hay de todos los sabores y colores, permitiéndonos invertir de manera diversificada en sectores, países enteros, tendencias de inversion como energias renovables o automatización, grupos de bonos de cierta calidad crediticia, etc.
El rol del broker y el mercado
La mayoría de estos instrumentos se acceden a través de un broker, que es una empresa que nos permite acceso al mercado. Los instrumentos relacionados a crypto se acceden generalmente via exchanges. Para mas información sobre brokers o exchanges, buscar por el sub. En ambos casos, debemos tener presente que comisiones vamos a tener al operar, que instrumentos tiene cada broker, su reputación, atención al cliente, participación en nuevas emisiones y varias cosas mas. Es bastante común tener cuenta comitente (el análogo a una cuenta bancaria, donde en vez de dinero, también podemos tener títulos como acciones, etc) en varios brokers! El mercado en si, no es mas que el medio electrónico donde se intercambian la mayoría de los títulos listados. Este intercambio se hace mediante oferta y demanda, donde tienen prioridad los que quieren comprar a mayor precio y los que quieren vender a menor precio, y luego los que llegan antes en ese orden. Una vez que se matchea el precio de compra, con el precio de venta, se concreta la operación y se intercambian títulos por dinero, determinando así el precio del activo en cuestión. En este mercado, participan todos los inversores, desde un inversor minorista físico buscando timbear unos pesitos o invertir sus ahorros, hasta empresas que emiten deuda o acciones para financiar su operación. Luego tenemos grandes inversores como inversores institucionales, bancos o empresas de seguros que buscan invertir el capital de sus clientes así como provincias y países que buscan financiarse emitiendo bonos.
El perfil del inversor, emociones y disciplina
Ya sabemos entonces que las distintas inversiones van a tener su nivel de riesgo, entre otras limitaciones. El desafío ahora es intentar asegurarnos de que el nivel de riesgo requerido para una inversion, sea adecuado para el inversor. Por qué es importante que el perfil de inversor este en consonancia con la inversion? Porque cuando hay ruido, las emociones nos pueden llevar a romper nuestra estrategia inicial que tan cuidadosamente planeamos. Si no tenemos la disciplina, vamos a hacer estragos. Cabe destacar que esto puede suceder cuando el riesgo de la inversion es mas alto que el que el inversor esta dispuesto a tolerar, asi como en el caso inverso. Esto se puede ilustrar con dos ejemplos:
Compramos CEDEARs de MSFT con el objetivo de sacarnos de encima los pesos y dejarlos en algún lado dolarizado para uso en algunos años, de paso sacando una ganancia. Sin embargo, no nos dimos cuenta que los CEDEARs son instrumentos altamente volátiles, ya que combinan la volatilidad del tipo de cambio, con la volatilidad de la acción subyacente. Un día, el dolar baja abruptamente por alguna medida y al mismo tiempo la empresa presenta balances en EEUU. Vemos que el precio del CEDEAR esta mostrando -10% en la apertura del mercado. A la media hora vemos -15% y temiendo por nuestro capital ,decidimos vender, ya que parece no tener piso. A los 6 meses, el CEDEAR esta 50% arriba del valor al que vendimos y nos queremos morir. Que sucedió? No respetamos la estrategia original. Pero por qué? No necesitábamos esos pesos. Analizamos la empresa y parecia solida. Sin embargo, al momento de ver esa volatilidad diaria, las emociones nos dominaron y vendimos. Esto es una señal de que algo en la inversion original (en este caso el riesgo), no es acorde al perfil del inversor.
Supongamos que somos una persona joven, con buenos prospectos de crecimiento en nuestro laburo y queremos invertir nuestro capital. Como todavia no tenemos muchas obligaciones, nos sobra un buen monto cada mes para invertir. Decidimos ponerlo en plazo fijo todos los meses. Al año, nos damos cuenta que si tuvimos suerte, apenas le ganamos a la inflación. En este caso no vamos a hacer cagadas en el medio de la inversion, pero nos damos cuenta del costo de oportunidad perdido al comparar con haber invertido en instrumentos mas rendidores como acciones. Al evaluar esta situación, decidimos elegir otra estrategia para nuestra próxima inversion.
Para intentar determinar nuestro perfil de inversor podemos utilizar tests online. Si bien nos pueden dar una idea, es esperable que hasta no tener las manos en la masa, no nos demos cuenta de cual es realmente nuestro perfil. Una ultima cuestión a tener en cuenta con respecto al perfil, es que si bien el riesgo es uno de los items mas importantes a descubrir, no es el único. Otro importante por ejemplo, es el plazo. Podemos pensar que estamos a largo plazo, pero si estamos mirando nuestra inversion dia a día, tenemos una disonancia. Otro es el nivel de conocimiento de los instrumentos a operar en la estrategia. Si nos metemos a compravender futuros sin tener mucha idea de la mecánica, aumentamos exponencialmente las chances de que salga todo mal, por mas que el resto de la estrategia este delineada cuidadosamente.
La importancia de la diversificación
Diversificar significa reducir o eliminar riesgos, mediante la combinación de varios instrumentos. Vamos a dar varios ejemplos en vez de entrar en definiciones:
Supongamos que queremos apostar a la recuperación de los cruceros luego de la pandemia del COVID. Una opción es ir y comprar acciones de RCL (Royal Caribbean). Sin embargo, una alternativa menos riesgosa, es comprar varias acciones de cruceros que sean representativas del mercado: RCL (Royal Caribbean), CCL (Carnival Cruises), NCLH (Norwegian Cruises). De esta manera, estamos mitigando el riesgo de una unica empresa.
Supongamos que queremos invertir en acciones de Brazil, porque nos parece que el pais tiene mucho potencial de convertirse en un mercado del primer mundo. En este caso, podríamos comprar las empresas mas representativas de Brazil, como Vale, Banco Bradesco, Petrobras o Banco Itaú, y asi sucesivamente (por ej, 10 empresas). Si bien estaríamos diversificados, hay un instrumento mas apropiado para eso que es un ETF como el EWZ, una pseudo-acción, que esta compuesta por cientos de las empresas mas grandes de Brazil. De esta manera, no solo diversificamos muchísimo mas (prácticamente la perdida es nula si una empresa quiebra), sino que la gestión es mas sencilla al ser un único activo.
En todos los casos estamos reduciendo riesgo a cambio de retornos menos volátiles, y por ende sacrificando situaciones de muy altos retornos pero también eliminando situaciones de grandes perdidas (ej, una empresa quiebra). Un concepto muy importante asociado a la diversificación, es la correlación. La correlación es una medida estadística de que tan similar es el movimiento de una variable con respecto a otra. Va desde -1 que significa correlación perfecta inversa (ej, cuando uno sube en un 5%, el otro baja en 5%), 0 que significa que no hay correlación y 1 que significa correlación perfecta (ej, cuando uno sube 5%, el otro sube 5%). Cuanto mas correlacionados están dos instrumentos, menos diversificación obtenemos al combinarlos y viceversa. Esto quiere decir que si tenemos una cartera con 50% de un instrumento A y 50% de otro instrumento B, el nivel de diversificación real que vamos a tener, va a depender de la correlación entre A y B. Si están perfectamente correlacionados, la diversificación es nula. En cambio, si su correlación es 0 o menor, el beneficio es mucho mayor. Si volvemos a nuestro ejemplo de los cruceros, si bien estamos diversificando el riesgo de una empresa, no estamos diversificando el riesgo del sector (esto es a proposito), donde todas las acciones relacionadas con cruceros tienen alta correlación, ni tampoco estamos diversificando el riesgo del mercado, ya que ninguna empresa esta aislada y todas las acciones dependen entre si: para construir un crucero necesito materiales para fabricarlo, necesito contratar gente, necesito capital y prestamos, necesito que la gente tenga plata y este dispuesta a gastarla en cruceros, y un gran etcétera.
Armando un portfolio (cartera) acorde a nuestros objetivos
Una vez que tenemos nuestras posibles inversiones, vamos a agarrar nuestro capital y decidir como distribuirlo. Nuestra cartera puede tener un mix de inversiones de distintos horizontes, en distintos instrumentos, con distintos niveles de riesgo y porcentajes acordes. Es muy importante tener en cuenta el nivel de riesgo de nuestra cartera en total, viendo los niveles de correlación entre los activos que tenemos. Por ejemplo, es muy común incorporar una parte de nuestra cartera en cash o en renta fija de bajo riesgo, para tener baja correlación con las acciones o correlación inversa en el caso de los bonos. Esto se debe a que cuando las acciones caen, los inversores aversos al riesgo, suelen vender y comprar bonos. Una teoria muy usada para aprender sobre el análisis de portfolios es el modelo CAPM, que no voy a profundizar aca pero les dejo la punta para investigar si quieren darle un enfoque mas cuantitativo a la diversificación de la cartera. Cabe aclarar que es un modelo anticuado (el primer modelo de hecho) pero no es menos util. El armado de portfolios es toda una ciencia y se estudia bajo lo que se llama MPT (Modern Portfolio Theory).
Como evaluar las decisiones de inversion
Repitan conmigo: para evaluar que tan buena o mala fue una inversion tiene tanto o mas peso el proceso de decision al ingresar y al salir de la inversion, que el resultado (retorno) de la misma. Estamos intentando evitar dos escenarios, que son MUY problemáticos para los inversores y tenemos que tratar de identificarlos a toda costa:
Una inversion nos puede salir bien, aunque hayamos hecho todo mal. Esto se suele resumir en el dicho popular "todos somos genios cuando la bolsa esta subiendo".
Una inversion nos puede salir mal, aunque hayamos hecho todo bien. Esto se debe a que en inversiones de riesgo, lo que estamos haciendo es tratando de manejar riesgos y retornos, pero no controlamos cuales de los eventos terminan sucediendo en la practica.
En el primer caso, el problema es que probablemente lleguemos a conclusiones incorrectas, reforzando nuestro esquema de decision erróneo, y en algún momento nos llevemos una sorpresa desagradable. Mientras que en el segundo caso, el problema es que probablemente nos desalentemos y dejemos de invertir aunque íbamos por el camino correcto. Vamos con un ejemplo de cada uno:
"Me gustan las películas de Disney, voy a comprar unas acciones". A la semana, Disney lanza una serie nueva que tiene mucho potencial y la acción sube 10%. Naturalmente, al ver esta ganancia en el corto plazo, nos olvidamos que nos metimos en Disney por cuestiones marketineras en vez de por cuestiones de análisis serio de la empresa, y nos creemos que somos unos capos. "Claro, era obvio que iba a subir". Satisfechos con el resultado, seguimos con nuestra metodologia: "El futuro son los autos eléctricos, yo me mando y compro Tesla, no puede fallar". Al dia siguiente, Elon Musk twittea que van a abandonar las operaciones en China por nuevas tarifas impuestas por el gobierno Chino y la acción cae 20% en un dia. En pánico, vendemos todo y no entendemos que pasó. "El mercado es una timba", gritamos, acompañado de varios insultos, y juramos nunca mas invertir nuestro dinero mientras vamos a la cueva de confianza a pagar un tremendo sobreprecio por el dolar blue.
"Analicé todos los balances recientes de Apple. La empresa tiene números sólidos y grandes proyectos. Las perspectivas de crecimiento, tanto desde los fundamentals como desde el consenso del mercado en los precios (gráficos) son excelentes. Validé mis análisis contra otros análisis de varias fuentes, enriqueciendo mis hipótesis y validando aún mas mis proyecciones. Acordemente, voy a poner una parte importante de mi capital en acciones de AAPL". Al mes, cae un avión en el medio de la asamblea de inversores matando a todos los presentes de la junta directiva, incluido el CEO y a Warren Buffet que pasaba por ahí cerca. La acción colapsa -30% al dia siguiente. Frustrados por semejante baja inesperado, vendemos nuestra posición. "El mercado es una timba", gritamos, acompañado de varios insultos, y juramos nunca mas invertir nuestro dinero mientras vamos a la cueva de confianza a pagar un tremendo sobreprecio por el dolar blue.
Esto no quiere decir que no debemos evaluar una inversion sobre la marcha y post cierre de la misma. Muchas veces podemos aprender cosas útiles. Pero el proceso de aprendizaje tiene que estar atado al proceso de toma de decisiones y de gestión de riesgo, no de intentar predecir eventos aleatorios. Después de todo, la gestión de riesgo es justamente eso: intentar predecir qué eventos aleatorios, fuera de nuestro control, se pueden dar y con que probabilidad, y no si se van a dar o no y cuando.
Recomiendo seguir con este curso para intentar determinar que perfil de inversión va mas de acuerdo con nuestra capacidad, tiempo y objetivos. Una vez que tengamos claro estos principios, el siguiente paso sería familiarizarnos con la mecánica de la operación en el mercado y los distintos instrumentos. Espero que les haya servido y cualquier comentario, duda, cosa me avisan en los comentarios. Mucha suerte en este camino que recién empieza ;)
I have written this guide to dispel a common misconception I hear from this community - that putting more than one Graphics Card in your Bitcoin Farm is a great idea. TLDR: The FIRST graphics card you put in your bitcoin farm generates a bitcoin every 20 hours. Every additional graphics card you put in your bitcoin farm generates a bitcoin every 333.33 hours. This information is misstated on the wiki and in many videos I've seen. More Complicated Maths TLDR from u/Mekhazzio : TLDR: The bitcoin farm has a base production rate that's much higher than the rate added by each additional graphics cards. So when investing, you shouldn't be looking at how fast the whole farm pays itself off, but how much time it takes your N>1 graphics cards to each pay for themselves, because otherwise you could have just been pocketing the pure profit from the base production rate the whole time. At current therapist/flea-FiR values:
Baseline Rubles/Hr 7732.45
per-GPU Rubles/Hr 473.42
GPU days to payoff 22
That is to say, adding a GPU to an already-running farm takes three weeks before you've stopped losing money on that GPU. A pretty simple formula is utilized to determine Bitcoin Farming output. The payback period for your first graphics card is around 3 days. For each additional graphics card that you put in the payback period is over 20 days. The reason that this has confused so many people is that they credit the production from Graphics Card 1 to the payback period for the rest of the Graphics Cards. Caveat 1: Escape from Tarkov is a video game and, at least for us players, not a business. Many video game players are completionists, and I will not begrudge anyone who wants to max out every single part of their hideout because it will feel like an achievement. This guide discusses the impact of bitcoin farming on your PMC's wallet. If you find utility in maxing out the bitcoin farm for the feeling of completion then you should do it and probably just close this guide and not worry about it. Caveat 2: This guide will not address people who hatchet run or pistol run to put graphics cards in their secure container that will usually end up being non-FIR. There are too many variables (spawn rate, survival rate, replacement value of just doing normal Tarkov raids instead of hatchet runs) to do a decent analysis. If you end up with non-FIR graphics cards you should put them in your Bitcoin Farm. Analysis: The formula for bitcoin generation is as follows:
Let's simplify some unnecessary constants and make this look more like a normal mathematical function. All we have to do is multiply (1/49) * (0.15) to get this, which is equivalent and much easier to understand:
Building the empty bitcoin generator: ~300k roubles
Graphics Card Cost: ~250k roubles
Bitcoin sale price to Therapist: ~150k roubles
Caveat 3: Prices may change, blah blah blah, unless the IRL bitcoin market crashes the conclusions from this guide will still be accurate for the most part. I will also note that I'm not going to include the cost for fuel needed for production. Because you can craft expeditionary fuel into mag boxes, as well as do other crafts on your workbench and med station while you have the power on, this cost is negligible. Furthermore, since my thesis is that putting more graphics cards in is not worth it, the fact is that I can prove this mathematically without even accounting for the entire cost category of fuel only strengthens my argument. Using these assumed prices, let's take a look at some different cases. Case 1: Building a Bitcoin Generator and putting a single graphics card in. To calculate cost, we add the cost of building the empty generator (300k) to the single graphics card (250k) to get 550k rouble investment. Lets calculate revenue using our formula before:BTC Generated per Hour = 0.05 + 0.003 * (Graphics Cards - 1)BTC Generated per Hour = 0.05 + 0.003 * (1 Graphics Cards - 1)BTC Generated per Hour = 0.05 + 0.003 * (0)BTC Generated per Hour = 0.05 So we're generating 5% of a bitcoin every hour which means we'll get a bitcoin from our farm every 20 hours. So, every 20 hours we are generating a product worth ~150k. Since we invested ~550k we need to sell: 550k investment / 150k roubles per bitcoin = 3.66 physical bitcoins in order to recoup our investment Since we can't harvest bitcoins until they are full, we actually need to wait until we get 4 bitcoins at which point we'll be making a slight profit. Generating 4 bitcoins will take 4 bitcoins * 20 hours per bitcoin = 80 hours or a little more than 3 days. Case 2: Adding a second graphics card to our bitcoin farm. Now, as discussed above I'm not worried about non-FIR graphics cards that you hatchet ran to find. If you have an FIR graphics card then you can sell it on the flea market for the 250k price that I'm using as an assumption above. This concept is called opportunity cost and if you don't understand it I will troll you in the comments: Putting an FIR graphics card into your bitcoin farm is the same as purchasing one off of the flea market and putting it in your bitcoin farm because you had the opportunity to just sell your FIR graphics card for the same price that you can buy it. With that out of the way, let's do some math on our 2 graphics card bitcoin farm: BTC Generated per Hour = 0.05 + 0.003 * (Graphics Cards - 1)BTC Generated per Hour = 0.05 + 0.003 * (2 Graphics Cards - 1)BTC Generated per Hour = 0.05 + 0.003 * 1BTC Generated per Hour = 0.053 So, for the cost of 250k roubles we have increased our bitcoin per hour generation by 0.003. The first graphics card that we added to our bitcoin farm generates us one bitcoin every 20 hours, as discussed above. The second graphics card that we added to our bitcoin farm generates 0.003 bitcoins per hour. To calculate how many hours this takes to get 1 bitcoin we do the math of 1 / 0.003 = 333.33 hours. 333.33 hours / 24 hours per day is 13.88 or roughly 14 days. In order to recoup our investment from the 250k roubles we used to get our second graphics card we divide 250k roubles invested by 150k roubles per bitcoin = 1.66 bitcoins. We generate one bitcoin every 14 days, so we can multiply 14 days * 1.66 bitcoins = 23 days. This math will hold true for every additional graphics card because the function is linear. Thus, the payback period for your 250k investment in adding a graphics card past the first one to your bitcoin farm is 23 days. To reiterate: The FIRST graphics card you put in your bitcoin farm generates a bitcoin every 20 hours. Every additional graphics card you put in your bitcoin farm generates a bitcoin every 333.33 hours.
Eth 2.0 vs Polkadot and other musings by a fundamental investor
Spent about two hours on this post and I decided it would help the community if I made it more visible. Comment was made as a response to this
I’m trying to avoid falling into a maximalist mindset over time. This isn’t a 100% ETH question, but I’m trying to stay educated about emerging tech. Can someone help me see the downsides of diversifying into DOTs? I know Polkadot is more centralized, VC backed, and generally against our ethos here. On chain governance might introduce some unknown risks. What else am I missing? I see a bunch of posts about how Ethereum and Polkadot can thrive together, but are they not both L1 competitors?
What else am I missing?
The upsides. Most of the guys responding to you here are full Eth maxis who drank the Parity is bad koolaid. They are married to their investment and basically emotional / tribal in an area where you should have a cool head. Sure, you might get more upvotes on Reddit if you do and say what the crowd wants, but do you want upvotes and fleeting validation or do you want returns on your investment? Do you want to be these guys or do you want to be the shareholder making bank off of those guys? Disclaimer: I'm both an Eth whale and a Dot whale, and have been in crypto for close to a decade now. I originally bought ether sub $10 after researching it for at least a thousand hours. Rode to $1500 and down to $60. Iron hands - my intent has always been to reconsider my Eth position after proof of stake is out. I invested in the 2017 Dot public sale with the plan of flipping profits back to Eth but keeping Dots looks like the right short and long term play now. I am not a trader, I just take a deep tech dive every couple of years and invest in fundamentals. Now as for your concerns:
I know Polkadot is more centralized
The sad truth is that the market doesn't really care about this. At all. There is no real statistic to show at what point a coin is "decentralized" or "too centralized". For example, bitcoin has been completely taken over by Chinese mining farms for about five years now. Last I checked, they control above 85% of the hashing power, they just spread it among different mining pools to make it look decentralized. They have had the ability to fake or block transactions for all this time but it has never been in their best interest to do so: messing with bitcoin in that way would crash its price, therefore their bitcoin holdings, their mining equipment, and their company stock (some of them worth billions) would evaporate. So they won't do it due to economics, but not because they can't. That is the major point I want to get across; originally Bitcoin couldn't be messed with because it was decentralized, but now Bitcoin is centralized but it's still not messed with due to economics. It is basically ChinaCoin at this point, but the market doesn't care, and it still enjoys over 50% of the total crypto market cap. So how does this relate to Polkadot? Well fortunately most chains - Ethereum included - are working towards proof of stake. This is obviously better for the environment, but it also has a massive benefit for token holders. If a hostile party wanted to take over a proof of stake chain they'd have to buy up a massive share of the network. The moment they force through a malicious transaction a proof of stake blockchain has the option to fork them off. It would be messy for a few days, but by the end of the week the hostile party would have a large amount of now worthless tokens, and the proof of stake community would have moved on to a version of the blockchain where the hostile party's tokens have been slashed to zero. So not only does the market not care about centralization (Bitcoin example), but proof of stake makes token holders even safer. That being said, Polkadot's "centralization" is not that far off to Ethereum. The Web3 foundation kept 30% of the Dots while the Ethereum Foundation kept 17%. There are whales in Polkadot but Ethereum has them too - 40% of all genesis Ether went to 100 wallets, and many suspect that the original Ethereum ICO was sybiled to make it look more popular and decentralized than it really was. But you don't really care about that do you? Neither do I. Whales are a fact of life.
VCs are part of the crypto game now. There is no way to get rid of them, and there is no real reason why you should want to get rid of them. They put their capital at risk (same as you and me) and seek returns on their investment (same as you and me). They are both in Polkadot and Ethereum, and have been for years now. I have no issue with them as long as they don't play around with insider information, but that is another topic. To be honest, I would be worried if VCs did not endorse chains I'm researching, but maybe that's because my investing style isn't chasing hype and buying SUSHI style tokens from anonymous (at the time) developers. That's just playing hot potato. But hey, some people are good at that. As to the amount of wallets that participated in the Polkadot ICO: a little known fact is that more individual wallets participated in Polkadot's ICO than Ethereum's, even though Polkadot never marketed their ICO rounds due to regulatory reasons.
generally against our ethos here
Kool aid. Some guy that works(ed?) at Parity (who employs what, 200+ people?) correctly said that Ethereum is losing its tech lead and that offended the Ethereum hivemind. Oh no. So controversial. I'm so personally hurt by that. Some guy that has been working for free on Ethereum basically forever correctly said that Polkadot is taking the blockchain tech crown. Do we A) Reflect on why he said that? or B) Rally the mob to chase him off?
Also Parity locked their funds (and about 500+ other wallets not owned by them) and proposed a solution to recover them. When the community voted no they backed off and did not fork the chain, even if they had the influence to do so. For some reason this subreddit hates them for that, even if Parity did the 100% moral thing to do. Remember, 500+ other teams or people had their funds locked, so Parity was morally bound to try its best to recover them. Its just lame drama to be honest. Nothing to do with ethos, everything to do with emotional tribalism. Now for the missing upsides (I'll also respond to random fragments scattered in the thread):
This isn’t a 100% ETH question, but I’m trying to stay educated about emerging tech.
A good quick intro to Eth's tech vs Polkadot's tech can be found on this thread, especially this reply. That thread is basically mandatory reading if you care about your investment. Eth 2.0's features will not really kick in for end users until about 2023. That means every dapp (except DeFI, where the fees make sense due to returns and is leading the fee market) who built on Eth's layer 1 are dead for three years. Remember the trading card games... Gods Unchained? How many players do you think are going to buy and sell cards when the transaction fee is worth more than the cards? All that development is now practically worthless until it can migrate to its own shard. This story repeats for hundreds of other dapp teams who's projects are now priced out for three years. So now they either have to migrate to a one of the many unpopulated L2 options (which have their own list of problems and risks, but that's another topic) or they look for another platform, preferably one interoperable with Ethereum. Hence Polkadot's massive growth in developer activity. If you check out https://polkaproject.com/ you'll see 205 projects listed at the time of this post. About a week ago they had 202 listed. That means about one team migrated from another tech stack to build on Polkadot every two days, and trust me, many more will come in when parachains are finally activated, and it will be a complete no brainer when Polkadot 2.0 is released. Another huge upside for Polkadot is the Initial Parachain Offerings. Polkadot's version of ICOs. The biggest difference is that you can vote for parachains using your Dots to bind them to the relay chain, and you get some of the parachain's tokens in exchange. After a certain amount of time you get your Dots back. The tokenomics here are impressive: Dots are locked (reduced supply) instead of sold (sell pressure) and you still earn your staking rewards. There's no risk of scammers running away with your Ether and the governance mechanism allows for the community to defund incompetent devs who did not deliver what was promised.
Wouldn’t an ETH shard on Polkadot gain a bunch of scaling benefits that we won’t see natively for a couple years?
Yes. That is correct. Both Edgeware and Moonbeam are EVM compatible. And if the original dapp teams don't migrate their projects someone else will fork them, exactly like SUSHI did to Uniswap, and how Acala is doing to MakerDao.
Although realistically Ethereum has a 5 yr headstart and devs haven't slowed down at all
Just because it's "EVM Compatible" doesn't mean you can just plug Ethereum into Polkadot or vica versa, it just means they both understand Ethereum bytecode and you can potentially copy/paste contracts from Ethereum to Polkadot, but you'd still need to add a "bridge" between the 2 chains, so it adds additional complexity and extra steps compared to using any of the existing L2 scaling solutions
That only applies of you are thinking from an Eth maximalist perspective. But if you think from Polkadot's side, why would you need to use the bridge back to Ethereum at all? Everything will be seamless, cheaper, and quicker once the ecosystem starts to flourish.
I see a bunch of posts about how Ethereum and Polkadot can thrive together, but are they not both L1 competitors?
They are competitors. Both have their strategies, and both have their strengths (tech vs time on the market) but they are clearly competing in my eyes. Which is a good thing, Apple and Samsung competing in the cell phone market just leads to more innovation for consumers. You can still invest in both if you like. Edit - link to post and the rest of the conversation: https://www.reddit.com/ethfinance/comments/iooew6/daily_general_discussion_september_8_2020/g4h5yyq/ Edit 2 - one day later PolkaProject count is 210. Devs are getting the hint :)
Hey all, I've been researching coins since 2017 and have gone through 100s of them in the last 3 years. I got introduced to blockchain via Bitcoin of course, analyzed Ethereum thereafter and from that moment I have a keen interest in smart contact platforms. I’m passionate about Ethereum but I find Zilliqa to have a better risk-reward ratio. Especially because Zilliqa has found an elegant balance between being secure, decentralized and scalable in my opinion.
Below I post my analysis of why from all the coins I went through I’m most bullish on Zilliqa (yes I went through Tezos, EOS, NEO, VeChain, Harmony, Algorand, Cardano etc.). Note that this is not investment advice and although it's a thorough analysis there is obviously some bias involved. Looking forward to what you all think!
Fun fact: the name Zilliqa is a play on ‘silica’ silicon dioxide which means “Silicon for the high-throughput consensus computer.”
This post is divided into (i) Technology, (ii) Business & Partnerships, and (iii) Marketing & Community. I’ve tried to make the technology part readable for a broad audience. If you’ve ever tried understanding the inner workings of Bitcoin and Ethereum you should be able to grasp most parts. Otherwise, just skim through and once you are zoning out head to the next part.
Technology and some more:
The technology is one of the main reasons why I’m so bullish on Zilliqa. First thing you see on their website is: “Zilliqa is a high-performance, high-security blockchain platform for enterprises and next-generation applications.” These are some bold statements.
Before we deep dive into the technology let’s take a step back in time first as they have quite the history. The initial research paper from which Zilliqa originated dates back to August 2016: Elastico: A Secure Sharding Protocol For Open Blockchains where Loi Luu (Kyber Network) is one of the co-authors. Other ideas that led to the development of what Zilliqa has become today are: Bitcoin-NG, collective signing CoSi, ByzCoin and Omniledger.
The technical white paper was made public in August 2017 and since then they have achieved everything stated in the white paper and also created their own open source intermediate level smart contract language called Scilla (functional programming language similar to OCaml) too.
Mainnet is live since the end of January 2019 with daily transaction rates growing continuously. About a week ago mainnet reached 5 million transactions, 500.000+ addresses in total along with 2400 nodes keeping the network decentralized and secure. Circulating supply is nearing 11 billion and currently only mining rewards are left. The maximum supply is 21 billion with annual inflation being 7.13% currently and will only decrease with time.
Zilliqa realized early on that the usage of public cryptocurrencies and smart contracts were increasing but decentralized, secure, and scalable alternatives were lacking in the crypto space. They proposed to apply sharding onto a public smart contract blockchain where the transaction rate increases almost linear with the increase in the amount of nodes. More nodes = higher transaction throughput and increased decentralization. Sharding comes in many forms and Zilliqa uses network-, transaction- and computational sharding. Network sharding opens up the possibility of using transaction- and computational sharding on top. Zilliqa does not use state sharding for now. We’ll come back to this later.
Before we continue dissecting how Zilliqa achieves such from a technological standpoint it’s good to keep in mind that a blockchain being decentralised and secure and scalable is still one of the main hurdles in allowing widespread usage of decentralised networks. In my opinion this needs to be solved first before blockchains can get to the point where they can create and add large scale value. So I invite you to read the next section to grasp the underlying fundamentals. Because after all these premises need to be true otherwise there isn’t a fundamental case to be bullish on Zilliqa, right?
Down the rabbit hole
How have they achieved this? Let’s define the basics first: key players on Zilliqa are the users and the miners. A user is anybody who uses the blockchain to transfer funds or run smart contracts. Miners are the (shard) nodes in the network who run the consensus protocol and get rewarded for their service in Zillings (ZIL). The mining network is divided into several smaller networks called shards, which is also referred to as ‘network sharding’. Miners subsequently are randomly assigned to a shard by another set of miners called DS (Directory Service) nodes. The regular shards process transactions and the outputs of these shards are eventually combined by the DS shard as they reach consensus on the final state. More on how these DS shards reach consensus (via pBFT) will be explained later on.
The Zilliqa network produces two types of blocks: DS blocks and Tx blocks. One DS Block consists of 100 Tx Blocks. And as previously mentioned there are two types of nodes concerned with reaching consensus: shard nodes and DS nodes. Becoming a shard node or DS node is being defined by the result of a PoW cycle (Ethash) at the beginning of the DS Block. All candidate mining nodes compete with each other and run the PoW (Proof-of-Work) cycle for 60 seconds and the submissions achieving the highest difficulty will be allowed on the network. And to put it in perspective: the average difficulty for one DS node is ~ 2 Th/s equaling 2.000.000 Mh/s or 55 thousand+ GeForce GTX 1070 / 8 GB GPUs at 35.4 Mh/s. Each DS Block 10 new DS nodes are allowed. And a shard node needs to provide around 8.53 GH/s currently (around 240 GTX 1070s). Dual mining ETH/ETC and ZIL is possible and can be done via mining software such as Phoenix and Claymore. There are pools and if you have large amounts of hashing power (Ethash) available you could mine solo.
The PoW cycle of 60 seconds is a peak performance and acts as an entry ticket to the network. The entry ticket is called a sybil resistance mechanism and makes it incredibly hard for adversaries to spawn lots of identities and manipulate the network with these identities. And after every 100 Tx Blocks which corresponds to roughly 1,5 hour this PoW process repeats. In between these 1,5 hour, no PoW needs to be done meaning Zilliqa’s energy consumption to keep the network secure is low. For more detailed information on how mining works click here. Okay, hats off to you. You have made it this far. Before we go any deeper down the rabbit hole we first must understand why Zilliqa goes through all of the above technicalities and understand a bit more what a blockchain on a more fundamental level is. Because the core of Zilliqa’s consensus protocol relies on the usage of pBFT (practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance) we need to know more about state machines and their function. Navigate to Viewblock, a Zilliqa block explorer, and just come back to this article. We will use this site to navigate through a few concepts.
We have established that Zilliqa is a public and distributed blockchain. Meaning that everyone with an internet connection can send ZILs, trigger smart contracts, etc. and there is no central authority who fully controls the network. Zilliqa and other public and distributed blockchains (like Bitcoin and Ethereum) can also be defined as state machines.
Taking the liberty of paraphrasing examples and definitions given by Samuel Brooks’ medium article, he describes the definition of a blockchain (like Zilliqa) as: “A peer-to-peer, append-only datastore that uses consensus to synchronize cryptographically-secure data”.
Next, he states that: "blockchains are fundamentally systems for managing valid state transitions”. For some more context, I recommend reading the whole medium article to get a better grasp of the definitions and understanding of state machines. Nevertheless, let’s try to simplify and compile it into a single paragraph. Take traffic lights as an example: all its states (red, amber, and green) are predefined, all possible outcomes are known and it doesn’t matter if you encounter the traffic light today or tomorrow. It will still behave the same. Managing the states of a traffic light can be done by triggering a sensor on the road or pushing a button resulting in one traffic lights’ state going from green to red (via amber) and another light from red to green.
With public blockchains like Zilliqa, this isn’t so straightforward and simple. It started with block #1 almost 1,5 years ago and every 45 seconds or so a new block linked to the previous block is being added. Resulting in a chain of blocks with transactions in it that everyone can verify from block #1 to the current #647.000+ block. The state is ever changing and the states it can find itself in are infinite. And while the traffic light might work together in tandem with various other traffic lights, it’s rather insignificant comparing it to a public blockchain. Because Zilliqa consists of 2400 nodes who need to work together to achieve consensus on what the latest valid state is while some of these nodes may have latency or broadcast issues, drop offline or are deliberately trying to attack the network, etc.
Now go back to the Viewblock page take a look at the amount of transaction, addresses, block and DS height and then hit refresh. Obviously as expected you see new incremented values on one or all parameters. And how did the Zilliqa blockchain manage to transition from a previous valid state to the latest valid state? By using pBFT to reach consensus on the latest valid state.
After having obtained the entry ticket, miners execute pBFT to reach consensus on the ever-changing state of the blockchain. pBFT requires a series of network communication between nodes, and as such there is no GPU involved (but CPU). Resulting in the total energy consumed to keep the blockchain secure, decentralized and scalable being low.
pBFT stands for practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance and is an optimization on the Byzantine Fault Tolerant algorithm. To quote Blockonomi: “In the context of distributed systems, Byzantine Fault Tolerance is the ability of a distributed computer network to function as desired and correctly reach a sufficient consensus despite malicious components (nodes) of the system failing or propagating incorrect information to other peers.” Zilliqa is such a distributed computer network and depends on the honesty of the nodes (shard and DS) to reach consensus and to continuously update the state with the latest block. If pBFT is a new term for you I can highly recommend the Blockonomi article.
The idea of pBFT was introduced in 1999 - one of the authors even won a Turing award for it - and it is well researched and applied in various blockchains and distributed systems nowadays. If you want more advanced information than the Blockonomi link provides click here. And if you’re in between Blockonomi and the University of Singapore read the Zilliqa Design Story Part 2 dating from October 2017. Quoting from the Zilliqa tech whitepaper: “pBFT relies upon a correct leader (which is randomly selected) to begin each phase and proceed when the sufficient majority exists. In case the leader is byzantine it can stall the entire consensus protocol. To address this challenge, pBFT offers a view change protocol to replace the byzantine leader with another one.”
pBFT can tolerate ⅓ of the nodes being dishonest (offline counts as Byzantine = dishonest) and the consensus protocol will function without stalling or hiccups. Once there are more than ⅓ of dishonest nodes but no more than ⅔ the network will be stalled and a view change will be triggered to elect a new DS leader. Only when more than ⅔ of the nodes are dishonest (66%) double-spend attacks become possible.
If the network stalls no transactions can be processed and one has to wait until a new honest leader has been elected. When the mainnet was just launched and in its early phases, view changes happened regularly. As of today the last stalling of the network - and view change being triggered - was at the end of October 2019.
Another benefit of using pBFT for consensus besides low energy is the immediate finality it provides. Once your transaction is included in a block and the block is added to the chain it’s done. Lastly, take a look at this article where three types of finality are being defined: probabilistic, absolute and economic finality. Zilliqa falls under the absolute finality (just like Tendermint for example). Although lengthy already we skipped through some of the inner workings from Zilliqa’s consensus: read the Zilliqa Design Story Part 3 and you will be close to having a complete picture on it. Enough about PoW, sybil resistance mechanism, pBFT, etc. Another thing we haven’t looked at yet is the amount of decentralization.
Currently, there are four shards, each one of them consisting of 600 nodes. 1 shard with 600 so-called DS nodes (Directory Service - they need to achieve a higher difficulty than shard nodes) and 1800 shard nodes of which 250 are shard guards (centralized nodes controlled by the team). The amount of shard guards has been steadily declining from 1200 in January 2019 to 250 as of May 2020. On the Viewblock statistics, you can see that many of the nodes are being located in the US but those are only the (CPU parts of the) shard nodes who perform pBFT. There is no data from where the PoW sources are coming. And when the Zilliqa blockchain starts reaching its transaction capacity limit, a network upgrade needs to be executed to lift the current cap of maximum 2400 nodes to allow more nodes and formation of more shards which will allow to network to keep on scaling according to demand. Besides shard nodes there are also seed nodes. The main role of seed nodes is to serve as direct access points (for end-users and clients) to the core Zilliqa network that validates transactions. Seed nodes consolidate transaction requests and forward these to the lookup nodes (another type of nodes) for distribution to the shards in the network. Seed nodes also maintain the entire transaction history and the global state of the blockchain which is needed to provide services such as block explorers. Seed nodes in the Zilliqa network are comparable to Infura on Ethereum.
The seed nodes were first only operated by Zilliqa themselves, exchanges and Viewblock. Operators of seed nodes like exchanges had no incentive to open them for the greater public. They were centralised at first. Decentralisation at the seed nodes level has been steadily rolled out since March 2020 ( Zilliqa Improvement Proposal 3 ). Currently the amount of seed nodes is being increased, they are public-facing and at the same time PoS is applied to incentivize seed node operators and make it possible for ZIL holders to stake and earn passive yields. Important distinction: seed nodes are not involved with consensus! That is still PoW as entry ticket and pBFT for the actual consensus.
5% of the block rewards are being assigned to seed nodes (from the beginning in 2019) and those are being used to pay out ZIL stakers. The 5% block rewards with an annual yield of 10.03% translate to roughly 610 MM ZILs in total that can be staked. Exchanges use the custodial variant of staking and wallets like Moonlet will use the non-custodial version (starting in Q3 2020). Staking is being done by sending ZILs to a smart contract created by Zilliqa and audited by Quantstamp.
With a high amount of DS; shard nodes and seed nodes becoming more decentralized too, Zilliqa qualifies for the label of decentralized in my opinion.
Generalized: programming languages can be divided into being ‘object-oriented’ or ‘functional’. Here is an ELI5 given by software development academy: * “all programs have two basic components, data – what the program knows – and behavior – what the program can do with that data. So object-oriented programming states that combining data and related behaviors in one place, is called “object”, which makes it easier to understand how a particular program works. On the other hand, functional programming argues that data and behavior are different things and should be separated to ensure their clarity.” *
Scilla is on the functional side and shares similarities with OCaml: OCaml is a general-purpose programming language with an emphasis on expressiveness and safety. It has an advanced type system that helps catch your mistakes without getting in your way. It's used in environments where a single mistake can cost millions and speed matters, is supported by an active community, and has a rich set of libraries and development tools. For all its power, OCaml is also pretty simple, which is one reason it's often used as a teaching language.
Scilla is blockchain agnostic, can be implemented onto other blockchains as well, is recognized by academics and won a so-called Distinguished Artifact Award award at the end of last year.
One of the reasons why the Zilliqa team decided to create their own programming language focused on preventing smart contract vulnerabilities is that adding logic on a blockchain, programming, means that you cannot afford to make mistakes. Otherwise, it could cost you. It’s all great and fun blockchains being immutable but updating your code because you found a bug isn’t the same as with a regular web application for example. And with smart contracts, it inherently involves cryptocurrencies in some form thus value.
Another difference with programming languages on a blockchain is gas. Every transaction you do on a smart contract platform like Zilliqa or Ethereum costs gas. With gas you basically pay for computational costs. Sending a ZIL from address A to address B costs 0.001 ZIL currently. Smart contracts are more complex, often involve various functions and require more gas (if gas is a new concept click here ).
So with Scilla, similar to Solidity, you need to make sure that “every function in your smart contract will run as expected without hitting gas limits. An improper resource analysis may lead to situations where funds may get stuck simply because a part of the smart contract code cannot be executed due to gas limits. Such constraints are not present in traditional software systems”.Scilla design story part 1
Some examples of smart contract issues you’d want to avoid are: leaking funds, ‘unexpected changes to critical state variables’ (example: someone other than you setting his or her address as the owner of the smart contract after creation) or simply killing a contract.
Scilla also allows for formal verification. Wikipedia to the rescue: In the context of hardware and software systems, formal verification is the act of proving or disproving the correctness of intended algorithms underlying a system with respect to a certain formal specification or property, using formal methods of mathematics.
Formal verification can be helpful in proving the correctness of systems such as: cryptographic protocols, combinational circuits, digital circuits with internal memory, and software expressed as source code.
“Scilla is being developed hand-in-hand with formalization of its semantics and its embedding into the Coq proof assistant — a state-of-the art tool for mechanized proofs about properties of programs.”
Simply put, with Scilla and accompanying tooling developers can be mathematically sure and proof that the smart contract they’ve written does what he or she intends it to do.
Smart contract on a sharded environment and state sharding
There is one more topic I’d like to touch on: smart contract execution in a sharded environment (and what is the effect of state sharding). This is a complex topic. I’m not able to explain it any easier than what is posted here. But I will try to compress the post into something easy to digest.
Earlier on we have established that Zilliqa can process transactions in parallel due to network sharding. This is where the linear scalability comes from. We can define simple transactions: a transaction from address A to B (Category 1), a transaction where a user interacts with one smart contract (Category 2) and the most complex ones where triggering a transaction results in multiple smart contracts being involved (Category 3). The shards are able to process transactions on their own without interference of the other shards. With Category 1 transactions that is doable, with Category 2 transactions sometimes if that address is in the same shard as the smart contract but with Category 3 you definitely need communication between the shards. Solving that requires to make a set of communication rules the protocol needs to follow in order to process all transactions in a generalised fashion.
There is no strict defined roadmap but here are topics being worked on. And via the Zilliqa website there is also more information on the projects they are working on.
Business & Partnerships
It’s not only technology in which Zilliqa seems to be excelling as their ecosystem has been expanding and starting to grow rapidly. The project is on a mission to provide OpenFinance (OpFi) to the world and Singapore is the right place to be due to its progressive regulations and futuristic thinking. Singapore has taken a proactive approach towards cryptocurrencies by introducing the Payment Services Act 2019 (PS Act). Among other things, the PS Act will regulate intermediaries dealing with certain cryptocurrencies, with a particular focus on consumer protection and anti-money laundering. It will also provide a stable regulatory licensing and operating framework for cryptocurrency entities, effectively covering all crypto businesses and exchanges based in Singapore. According to PWC 82% of the surveyed executives in Singapore reported blockchain initiatives underway and 13% of them have already brought the initiatives live to the market. There is also an increasing list of organizations that are starting to provide digital payment services. Moreover, Singaporean blockchain developers Building Cities Beyond has recently created an innovation $15 million grant to encourage development on its ecosystem. This all suggests that Singapore tries to position itself as (one of) the leading blockchain hubs in the world.
Zilliqa seems to already take advantage of this and recently helped launch Hg Exchange on their platform, together with financial institutions PhillipCapital, PrimePartners and Fundnel. Hg Exchange, which is now approved by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), uses smart contracts to represent digital assets. Through Hg Exchange financial institutions worldwide can use Zilliqa's safe-by-design smart contracts to enable the trading of private equities. For example, think of companies such as Grab, Airbnb, SpaceX that are not available for public trading right now. Hg Exchange will allow investors to buy shares of private companies & unicorns and capture their value before an IPO. Anquan, the main company behind Zilliqa, has also recently announced that they became a partner and shareholder in TEN31 Bank, which is a fully regulated bank allowing for tokenization of assets and is aiming to bridge the gap between conventional banking and the blockchain world. If STOs, the tokenization of assets, and equity trading will continue to increase, then Zilliqa’s public blockchain would be the ideal candidate due to its strategic positioning, partnerships, regulatory compliance and the technology that is being built on top of it.
What is also very encouraging is their focus on banking the un(der)banked. They are launching a stablecoin basket starting with XSGD. As many of you know, stablecoins are currently mostly used for trading. However, Zilliqa is actively trying to broaden the use case of stablecoins. I recommend everybody to read this text that Amrit Kumar wrote (one of the co-founders). These stablecoins will be integrated in the traditional markets and bridge the gap between the crypto world and the traditional world. This could potentially revolutionize and legitimise the crypto space if retailers and companies will for example start to use stablecoins for payments or remittances, instead of it solely being used for trading.
Zilliqa also released their DeFi strategic roadmap (dating November 2019) which seems to be aligning well with their OpFi strategy. A non-custodial DEX is coming to Zilliqa made by Switcheo which allows cross-chain trading (atomic swaps) between ETH, EOS and ZIL based tokens. They also signed a Memorandum of Understanding for a (soon to be announced) USD stablecoin. And as Zilliqa is all about regulations and being compliant, I’m speculating on it to be a regulated USD stablecoin. Furthermore, XSGD is already created and visible on block explorer and XIDR (Indonesian Stablecoin) is also coming soon via StraitsX. Here also an overview of the Tech Stack for Financial Applications from September 2019. Further quoting Amrit Kumar on this:
There are two basic building blocks in DeFi/OpFi though: 1) stablecoins as you need a non-volatile currency to get access to this market and 2) a dex to be able to trade all these financial assets. The rest are built on top of these blocks.
So far, together with our partners and community, we have worked on developing these building blocks with XSGD as a stablecoin. We are working on bringing a USD-backed stablecoin as well. We will soon have a decentralised exchange developed by Switcheo. And with HGX going live, we are also venturing into the tokenization space. More to come in the future.”
Additionally, they also have this ZILHive initiative that injects capital into projects. There have been already 6 waves of various teams working on infrastructure, innovation and research, and they are not from ASEAN or Singapore only but global: see Grantees breakdown by country. Over 60 project teams from over 20 countries have contributed to Zilliqa's ecosystem. This includes individuals and teams developing wallets, explorers, developer toolkits, smart contract testing frameworks, dapps, etc. As some of you may know, Unstoppable Domains (UD) blew up when they launched on Zilliqa. UD aims to replace cryptocurrency addresses with a human-readable name and allows for uncensorable websites. Zilliqa will probably be the only one able to handle all these transactions onchain due to ability to scale and its resulting low fees which is why the UD team launched this on Zilliqa in the first place. Furthermore, Zilliqa also has a strong emphasis on security, compliance, and privacy, which is why they partnered with companies like Elliptic, ChainSecurity (part of PwC Switzerland), and Incognito. Their sister company Aqilliz (Zilliqa spelled backwards) focuses on revolutionizing the digital advertising space and is doing interesting things like using Zilliqa to track outdoor digital ads with companies like Foodpanda.
Zilliqa is listed on nearly all major exchanges, having several different fiat-gateways and recently have been added to Binance’s margin trading and futures trading with really good volume. They also have a very impressive team with good credentials and experience. They don't just have “tech people”. They have a mix of tech people, business people, marketeers, scientists, and more. Naturally, it's good to have a mix of people with different skill sets if you work in the crypto space.
Marketing & Community
Zilliqa has a very strong community. If you just follow their Twitter their engagement is much higher for a coin that has approximately 80k followers. They also have been ‘coin of the day’ by LunarCrush many times. LunarCrush tracks real-time cryptocurrency value and social data. According to their data, it seems Zilliqa has a more fundamental and deeper understanding of marketing and community engagement than almost all other coins. While almost all coins have been a bit frozen in the last months, Zilliqa seems to be on its own bull run. It was somewhere in the 100s a few months ago and is currently ranked #46 on CoinGecko. Their official Telegram also has over 20k people and is very active, and their community channel which is over 7k now is more active and larger than many other official channels. Their local communities also seem to be growing.
Moreover, their community started ‘Zillacracy’ together with the Zilliqa core team ( see www.zillacracy.com ). It’s a community-run initiative where people from all over the world are now helping with marketing and development on Zilliqa. Since its launch in February 2020 they have been doing a lot and will also run their own non-custodial seed node for staking. This seed node will also allow them to start generating revenue for them to become a self sustaining entity that could potentially scale up to become a decentralized company working in parallel with the Zilliqa core team. Comparing it to all the other smart contract platforms (e.g. Cardano, EOS, Tezos etc.) they don't seem to have started a similar initiative (correct me if I’m wrong though). This suggests in my opinion that these other smart contract platforms do not fully understand how to utilize the ‘power of the community’. This is something you cannot ‘buy with money’ and gives many projects in the space a disadvantage.
Zilliqa also released two social products called SocialPay and Zeeves. SocialPay allows users to earn ZILs while tweeting with a specific hashtag. They have recently used it in partnership with the Singapore Red Cross for a marketing campaign after their initial pilot program. It seems like a very valuable social product with a good use case. I can see a lot of traditional companies entering the space through this product, which they seem to suggest will happen. Tokenizing hashtags with smart contracts to get network effect is a very smart and innovative idea.
Regarding Zeeves, this is a tipping bot for Telegram. They already have 1000s of signups and they plan to keep upgrading it for more and more people to use it (e.g. they recently have added a quiz features). They also use it during AMAs to reward people in real-time. It’s a very smart approach to grow their communities and get familiar with ZIL. I can see this becoming very big on Telegram. This tool suggests, again, that the Zilliqa team has a deeper understanding of what the crypto space and community needs and is good at finding the right innovative tools to grow and scale.
To be honest, I haven’t covered everything (i’m also reaching the character limited haha). So many updates happening lately that it's hard to keep up, such as the International Monetary Fund mentioning Zilliqa in their report, custodial and non-custodial Staking, Binance Margin, Futures, Widget, entering the Indian market, and more. The Head of Marketing Colin Miles has also released this as an overview of what is coming next. And last but not least, Vitalik Buterin has been mentioning Zilliqa lately acknowledging Zilliqa and mentioning that both projects have a lot of room to grow. There is much more info of course and a good part of it has been served to you on a silver platter. I invite you to continue researching by yourself :-) And if you have any comments or questions please post here!
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Without signing in to a Google Account, Chromium does pretty well in terms of security and privacy. However, Chromium still has some dependency on Google web services and binaries. In addition, Google designed Chromium to be easy and intuitive for users, which means they compromise on transparency and control of internal operations. ungoogled-chromium addresses these issues in the following ways:
Remove all remaining background requests to any web services while building and running the browser
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Remove all uses of pre-made binaries from the source code, and replace them with user-provided alternatives when possible. Disable features that inhibit control and transparency, and add or modify features that promote them (these changes will almost always require manual activation or enabling). GitHub Recommended addons: uBlock Origin | HTTPS Everywhere | Privacy Badger | Decentraleyes | NoScript
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Mullvad is an open-source commercial virtual private network (VPN) service based in Sweden. Launched in March 2009, Mullvad operates using the WireGuard and OpenVPN protocols. Mullvad accepts Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash for subscriptions in addition to conventional payment methods. No email address or other identifying information is requested during Mullvad's registration process. Rather, a unique 16-digit account number is anonymously generated for each new user. This account number is henceforth used to log in to the Mullvad service. The TechRadar review notes that "The end result of all this is you don't have to worry about how Mullvad handles court requests to access your usage data, because, well, there isn't any." Wikipedia
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For information about alternatives to software and services.
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Mirrors are kept up to date, this post may lag behind as we add stuff in.
Update and Few Thoughts, a (Well-Typed) transcript: Liza&Charles the marketeers, Voltaire kick-off, PrisM and Ebb-and-Flow to fuck ETH2.0 Gasper, the (back)log of a man and a falcon, lots of companies, September Goguen time, Basho, 2021 Titans, Basho, Hydra and much more thoughts and prayers
Hi everybody this is Charles Hoskinson broadcasting live from warm sunny Colorado. I'm trying a new streaming service and it allows me to annotate a few things and simulcast to both periscope and youtube. Let's see how this works. I also get to put a little caption. I think for the future, I'm just for a while going to put: "I will never give away ada". So, when people repost my videos for giveaway scams they at least have that. First off, a thank you, a community member named Daryl had decided to carve a log and give his artistic impression of my twitter profile picture of me and the falcon so that always means a lot when I get these gifts from fans and also I just wanted to, on the back of the Catalyst presentation, express my profound gratitude and excitement to the community. You know it's really really cool to see how much progress has been made in such a short period of time. It was only yesterday when we were saying "when Shelley"? Now Shelley's out and it's evolving rapidly. Voltaire is now starting to evolve rapidly and we're real close to Goguen. At the end of this month we'll be able to talk around some of the realities of Goguen and some of the ideas we have and give some dates for certain things and give you a sense of where that project is at. The good news is that we have gained an enormous amount of progress and knowledge about what we need to do and how to get that done and basically people are just executing and it's a much smaller task than getting us to Shelley. With Byron to Shelley we literally had to build a completely new cryptocurrency from the ground up. We had to have new ledger rules, new update system, we had to invent a way of transitioning from one system to another system and there's hundreds of other little innovations along the way: new network stack and so forth. Byron cosmetically looks like Shelley but under the hood it's completely different and the Shelley design was built with a lot of the things that we needed for Goguen in mind. For example, we built Shelley with the idea of extended UTXO and we built Shelley understanding what the realities were for the smart contract model and that's one of the advantages you get when you do this type of bespoke engineering. There's two consequences to that, one, the integration is significantly easier, and two, the integration is significantly faster. We won't look at that same complexity there. The product update at the end of the month... We'll really start discussing around some of these things as well as talk about partners and talk about how the development ecosystem is going to evolve. There are a lot of threads throughout all three organizations that are happening simultaneously. Emurgo, they're really thinking deeply about DeFi and they've invited us to collaborate with them on things like stablecoins for example but we're also looking at oracles (oracle pools), DEX and these other things and because there are already people in market who have made mistakes, learned lessons, it gives us the benefit of hindsight. It means we can be much faster to market and we can build much more competitive things in market and the Cardano community gets first access to these next generation DeFi applications without a lot of the problems of the prior generations and that's super beneficial to us. You know, the other side of it, is that Voltaire is going to have a systemic influence not just on community funding but also the overall evolution and direction of the platform. The longer it exists the more pervasive it will become. Probably first applied towards the Cardano foundation roadmap but later on it will definitely have a lot of influence and say over every element aspect of the system including the launch dApps and these other things. Basically, long term, the types of problems that Cardano solves so that's incredibly appealing to me and very exciting to me because it's like I have this giant community brain with the best and brightest of all of you working with us to get us where we need to go. You know, another thing that was super encouraging, it's a small thing, but it shows us that we're definitely in the right direction was that we recently got a demo from Pramod (Viswanath) and his team out of university of Illinois on a protocol they create called PrisM which is a super fast proof-of-work protocol and they wrote this beautiful paper and they wrote code along with it that showed that PrisM is a ten thousand times faster than Nakamoto consensus. If you take the bitcoin proof-of-work protocol, you strip it out, you put PrisM in, you can run the entire bitcoin system 10000 times faster. They have these beautiful benchmarks to show that. Even in bad network conditions. (I'm) promoting this team, they're, they're real researchers, and they're real engineers, they use a lot of cool HPC concepts like springboarding and other things like that to accommodate that. Then I asked him in the presentation, I said well, how much faster if you replay the Ethereum chain? He says, well, that it takes a big performance hit, could be only maybe a hundred times because that model is not as easy to optimize and shard with standard computer science concepts. In fact in some cases there are limitations there that really can't be overcome. It turns out that we're more on that UTXO side than we are on the account side. As a coincidence or intent of the design of extended UTXO we're gonna have a lot easier time getting much higher performance where and when it's necessary. I also approved this week a scaling up of the Basho project. In particular, to build a hydra prototype team. The science has gotten to a point where we can make a really competitive push in that particular direction. What does that mean? It means that in just a few short months we can de-risk technological approaches that long-term will give us a lot of fruit where and when the community decides that they need infrastructure like hydra. Now, here's the beautiful thing about hydra. If you watch my whiteboard back in September of 2017 when Cardano first hit market with Byron I talked about this concept of looking at scalability with a very simple test which is as you get more people in the system it stays at the same performance or it gets faster. We all experience systems that do this, for example, bittorrent, more people downloading something you tend to be able to get it faster and we all experience the converse which is, the system gets slower when you get more people. What does this mean? It means that hydra is an actual approach towards true scalability in the system and it's a lot easier to do than sharding even though we have a beautiful approach to get the sharding on the ledger side if we truly desire to go down that way. There's beautiful ideas that we are definitely in deep discussions about. That's a very complex thing. There was recently a paper ("Ebb-and-Flow Protocols: A Resolution of the Availability-Finality Dilemma") out of Stanford that showed that the Gasper protocol as proposed for ETH2.0 does have some security concerns and it's going to be the burden on the shoulders of the Ethereum 2.0 developers and Vitalik to address those concerns from those Stanford professors. Whenever you have these very complex protocols they have so many different ways they can break and things can go wrong so it's much more appealing when you don't have to embrace complexity to achieve the same. The elegance of hydra is that stake pool operators are very natural parties to put hydra channels on and every time we add one we get much more performance out of that and the system as it gets more valuable. The k factor increases which means you get more stake pull operators, which means you get more hydra channels, so with growth we get appreciation, with appreciation we get more decentralization, with more decentralization we get more performance. In essence, this spiritually speaking, is really what we meant when we said scalability. That the system will always grow to meet its particular needs and we have a very elegant way of moving in that direction that doesn't require us to embrace very sophisticated techniques. It's not to say that these techniques don't have a place and purpose but it says that the urgency of implementing these is gone and we then have the luxury to pick the best science when it's ready instead of rushing it to market to resolve a crisis of high fees. We'll never have that crisis so there's a beauty to Cardano that is missing, I in my view, from many cryptocurrencies and blockchains in the marketplace and we're now seeing that beauty shine through. Not only through our community who are so passionate and amazing but in the science and the engineering itself and how easy it is for us to navigate the concepts. How easy it is for us to add more things, to take some things away, to clean some things up here and there and our ability to move through. I never imagined when in 2015 I signed up to go in on this crazy ride and try to build a world financial operating system we would have made as much progress as we made today. We've written more than 75 research papers as an organization many of which are directly applicable to Cardano. We've got great partners who work with Nasa and Boeing and Pfizer, massive companies, that have 10 years of history and millions of users to come in and help us grow better. We've worked with incredible organizations, major universities like university of Wyoming, university of Edinburgh, Tokyo, tech professors all across the world. We've worked with incredible engineering firms like VacuumLabs and AtixLabs and Twig and Well-Typed, runtime verification, QuviQ and dozens of others along the years and despite the fact that at times there's been delays and friction throughout this entire journey we've mostly been aligned and we keep learning and growing. It gives me so much hope that our best days are ahead of us and an almost fanatical belief that success is inevitable in a certain respect. You see because we always find a way to be here tomorrow and we always find a way to make tomorrow a better day than today and as long as that's the trend you're monotonically increasing towards a better tomorrow, you're always going to have that outcome, you're always going to be in a position where Cardano shines bright. Towards the end of the month we'll have a lot more to say about the development side and that'll be a beginning just like Voltaire is the beginning and then suddenly you now notice the beautiful parallelism of the roadmap. Shelley continues to evolve, partial delegation is coming, in fact, I signed the contract with vacuumlabs to bring that to Ledger (and Trezor). The Daedalus team is hard at work to make that feature apparent for everyone as is the Yoroi team. You see that, with now Voltaire, and soon was Goguen, and these are not endpoints, rather they're just beginnings and they're never over. We can always make staking better, more diverse, more merit-based and entertain different control models, have better delegation mechanics, have better user experience. The same for smart contracts, that's an endless river and along the way what we've discovered is it's easy for us to work with great minds and great people. For example with testing of smart contracts I would love to diversify that conversation above and beyond what we can come up with and bring in some firms who have done this for a long time to basically take that part with us shoulder to shoulder and build beautiful frameworks to assist us. For example, runtime verification is doing this with, the EVM with a beautiful project called Firefly to replace Truffle. I believe that we can achieve similar ends with Plutus smart contracts. When you ask yourself what makes a system competitive in the cryptocurrency space? In my view there are four dimensions and you have to have a good story for all four of those dimensions. You need security and correctness. A lot of people don't prioritize that but when they get that wrong it hurts retail people, it hurts everyday people, billions of dollars have been lost due to the incompetence and ineptitude of junior developers making very bad mistakes and oftentimes those developers faced no consequences. The people who lost money were innocent people who believed in cryptocurrencies and wanted to be part of the movement but didn't protect themselves adequately. That's a really sad thing and it's unethical to continue pushing a model that that is the standard or the likely outcome rather than a rare edge case. You have to as a platform, a third generation platformn invest heavily in giving the developers proper tools to ensure security and correctness. We've seen a whole industry there's been great innovations out of Quantstamp and ConsenSys and dozens of other firms in the space including runtime verification who have really made major leaps in the last few years of trying to improve that story. What's unique to Cardano is that we based our foundations on languages that were designed right the first time and there's over 35 years of history for the approach that we're following in the Haskell side that allows us to build high assurance systems and our developers in the ecosystem to build high assurance systems. We didn't reinvent the wheel, we found the best wheel and we're giving it to you. I think we're going to be dominant in that respect as we enter 2021. Second, you look at things like ease of maintenance, ease of deployment, the life cycle of the software upgrades to the software and as we've demonstrated with things like the hard fork combinator and the fact that Voltaire is not just a governance layer for ada and Cardano but will eventually be reusable for any dApp deployed on our system. You have very natural tooling that's going to allow people to upgrade their smart contracts, their dApps and enable governance for their users at an incredibly low cost and not have to reinvent the governance wheel each and every application. This is another unique property to our system and it can be reused for the dApps that you deploy on your system as I've mentioned before. Performance is a significant concern and this was often corrupted by marketers especially ICO marketers who really wanted to differentiate (and) say: "our protocol tested on a single server in someone's basement is 500000 transactions per second" and somehow that translates to real life performance and that's antithetical to anyone who's ever to study distributed systems and understands the reality of these systems and where they go and what they do and in terms of performance. I think we have the most logical approach. You know, we have 10 years of history with bitcoin, it's a massive system, we've learned a huge amount and there's a lot of papers written about, a lot of practical projects and bitcoin is about to step into the world of smart contracts. We congratulate them on getting Schnorr sigs in and the success of Taproot. That means entering 2021, 2022, we are going to start seeing legitimate dApps DeFi projects, real applications, instead of choosing Ethereum or Algorand, EOS, Cardano, choosing bitcoin and they're adding a lot to that conversation. I think that ultimately that model has a lot of promise which is why we built a better one. There are still significant limitations with what bitcoin can accomplish from settlement time to the verbosity of contracts that can be written. The extended UTXO model was designed to be the fastest accounting and most charitable accounting model ever, on and off chain, and hydra was designed to allow you to flex between those two systems seamlessly. When you look at the foundations of where we're at and how we can extend this from domain specific languages, for domain experts, such as Marlowe to financial experts, and the DSLs that will come later, for others, like lawyers and supply chain experts in medical databases and so forth and how easy it is to write and deploy these. Plutus being beautiful glue code for both on and off chain communications. I think we have an incredibly competitive offering for performance and when hydra comes, simply put, there'll be no one faster. If we need to shard, we're going to do that and definitely better than anybody else because we know where our security model sits and there won't be surprise Stanford papers to blindside us that require immediate addressing. In terms of operating costs, this is the last component, in my view, and that's basically how much does it cost you the developer to run your application? There are really two dimensions, one is predictability and the other is amount. It's not just good enough to say: it's a penny per transaction today. You need to know that after you spend millions of dollars and months or years of effort building something and deploying something that you're not going to wake up tomorrow and now it's five dollars to do what used to cost a penny. You need that cost to be as low as possible and as predictable as possible and again the way that we architectured our system and as we turn things on towards the end of this year and as we enter into the next year we believe we have a great approach to achieve low operating cost. One person asks why Cardano? Well because we have great security and correctness in the development experience and tools with 35 years of legacy that were built right the first time and don't put the burdens of mistakes on your customers. They ask why Cardano and we say: well the chain itself is going to give you great solutions with identity value transformation and governance itself and as a consequence when you talk about upgrading your applications having a relationship with your customers of your applications and you talk about the ease of maintenance of those applications. There's going to be a good story there and we have beautiful frameworks like Voltaire that allow that story to evolve and we keep adding partners and who have decades of experience to get us along. We won't stop until it's much better. They asked why Cardano? We said because at the moment we're 10 times faster today than Ethereum today and that's all we really need for this year and next year to be honest and in the future we can be as fast as we need to be because we're truly scalable. As the system gets more decentralized the system improves performance and where and when we need to shard we can do that. We'll have the luxury of time to do it right, the Cardano way, and when people ask why Cardano? Because the reality is, it's very cheap to do things on our platform and the way we're building things. That's going to continue being the case and we have the governance mechanisms to allow the community to readjust fees and parameters so that it can continue being affordable for users. Everything in the system will eventually be customizable and parameterizable: from block size, to transaction fees and the community will be in a good position to dynamically allocate these things where and when needed so that we can enjoy as an ecosystem predictability in our cost. In the coming weeks and months, especially in my company, we're going to invest a lot of time and effort into comparison marketing and product marketing. When I see people say, oh well, you've launched proof of stake, a lot of other people have done. I don't think those people fully appreciate the magnitude of what we actually accomplished as an ecosystem and the quality of the protocols that are in distribution. That's not their fault, it's our fault, because we didn't take the time in simplistic terms, not scientific papers and deep code and formal specifications, but rather everyday language, to really show why we're different. I admit that that's a product failing and that needs to be corrected so we hired a great marketing director, named Liza (Horowitz?) and she is going to work full time with me and others in the ecosystem, a great team of people, every single day to get out there and explain what we have done is novel, unique, competitive and special to our industry. Everything from Ouroboros and contrast to major other protocols from the EOSes and Algorands and the Tezos of the world. Why we're different, trade-offs we chose over them, to our network stack, to the extended UTXO model, to Plutus, to Marlowe and we're going to keep hammering away at that until we get it right and everybody acknowledges and sees what has been accomplished. I've spent five years of my life, good years of my life, and missed a lot to get this project where it needs to go. All of our employees have invested huge sums of their personal lives, their time, their brand, their careers, in trying to make this the really most magical and special cryptocurrency and blockchain infrastructure around. No one ever signed up in this company or the other companies working on Cardano to work on a mediocre protocol. That's just another blockchain, they signed up to change the world, they signed up to build a system that legitimately can look at you in the face and say: one day we have the potential to have a billion users! That's what they signed up for and they showed up to play. They built technology that evolves in that direction with some certainty and great foundations and we have an obligation to market in a way that can show the world why, succinctly, with clarity. Understandably, this has been a failing in the past but you know what? You can always be better tomorrow that monotonically increasing make it better and that's what we're going to do. We recognized it and we're going to invest in it and with Voltaire if we can't do it. You the community can do it and we'll work with you. If you can do a better job and the funding will be there to get that done. In addition to this, we think about 2021 and we ask where does the future take us? I've thought a lot about this you know I've thought a lot about how do we get the next five years as we close out 2020 and here's the reality: we're not going to leave as a company until we have smart contracts and multi-asset and Voltaire has evolved to a point where the community can comfortably make decisions about the future of the protocol and that the staking experience has solidified and it's stable. I don't care if this costs me millions or tens of millions of dollars out of my own pocket to make happen. I'm going to do that because that's my commitment to you, the community and every product update will keep pushing our way there. We'll continue to get more transparent, we'll continue to get more aggressive and hire more and parallelize more. Aware when we can, to deliver that experience so that Cardano gets where it needs to go. Then when we ask about where do we go next? The reality is that the science as an industry, the engineering as an industry has given a menu of incredibly unique attractive and sexy things that we can pursue. What we're going to do is work with the community and the very same tools that are turning on today, the Voltaire tools, the cardano.ideascale.com tools and we're going to propose a consortium and we're going to bring the best and brightest together and give a vision of where we can take the system in another five years. With the benefit of hindsight, massively improved processes, better estimation capabilities and the fact that we're not starting with two people at IOG. We're starting with 250 people and the best scientific division in our industry and the legacy of almost, nearly by the end of this year, 100 scientific papers. That's us, you know what, there's dozens of companies throughout the history who have worked on Cardano. It's about time to scale them up too and get client diversity. So come next year when the protocol has evolved to the point where it's ready for it, we'll have that conversation with you the community and that's going to be a beautiful conversation. At the conclusion of it, there's going to be certainty of how we're going to evolve over the next five years to get ourselves beyond the cryptocurrency space. I'm very tired of these conversations we have about: are you going to go to (coindesk's) consensus or not? Or who's going to be the big winner? What about Libra or what about this particular regulation and this crypto unicorn and this thing? You know I've been in the space a long time and I've noticed that people keep saying the same things year after year in the same venues. Yes, the crowd sizes get larger and the amount of value at risk gets larger but I haven't seen a lot of progress in the places where I feel it is absolutely necessary for this technology to be permanent in the developing world. We need to see economic identity. People often ask what is the mission for Cardano? For us IOG, you look at economic identity and you take a look at a roadmap. For it, you scale up and down, and each and every step along the way, from open data, to self-sovereign identity, to financial inclusion. You can keep going down: to decentralized lending, decentralized insurance, decentralized banking. Each and every step along the way to economic identity. When you admit a blockchain tells you that, there's a collection of applications and infrastructure that you need to build. My life's work is to get to a point where we have the technology to do that. The infrastructure to do that, with principles, and so we'll keep evolving Cardano and we'll keep evolving the space as a whole and the science as a whole until I can wake up and say: each box and that road to economic identity, for all people not just one group, we have a solution for that. I'm going to put those applications on Cardano and success for me is not about us being king of the crypto hill and having a higher market cap than bitcoin or being entrepreneur of the year coindesk's most influential person. It's meaningless noise, success for me is reflecting back at the things that we have accomplished together and recognizing that millions if not billions now live in a system where they all matter, they all have a voice, they all have an equal footing. The Jeff Bezos of the world have the very same experience as the person born in Rwanda and we're not done until that's the case. It's a long road, it's a hard road, but you know what? We're making progress, we have great people in Africa, we have great people in eastern Europe, we have great people in southeast Asia and great partners all along the way. Great people, Latin America, great people in south America, great people here in the United States. When we talk about economic identity there are millions, if not tens of millions of Americans who don't have it. Same for Canadians, hundreds of thousands, who don't have it. Developed western cultures, it's the greatest blind spot of policy and as we enter into a depression as a result of coronavirus, add millions if not tens of millions more onto that list. Generations are being disenfranchised by this legacy system and we as an ecosystem, we as an entire community are offering a different way forward. Not hyper centralizationn not social credit but a way forward where you own your own money, your own identity, your own data. You're not a victim of surveillance capitalism, you're not a victim of civil asset forfeiture. When you say the wrong things, you get shut out of society. Each and every human being matters and I'm optimistic to believe that when you remind people that they matter they're gonna rise to the occasion. That is the point of my company. In the things that we do each and every day, that's our mission to give the platforms to the world so that those who don't have economic identity can get it and they can keep it and no one can take it from them and they can enjoy an ever increasing growth of standard of living wealth and prosperity. However you want to measure that this is my goal post, I couldn't care less about the cryptocurrency space. It was a great place to start but the space needs to be reminded why it exists. Bitcoin was given a mandate on the back of the 2008 financial crisis to do something different. It was not given a mandate to go be a new settlement layer for central banks or a new way for the old guard to make more money and banks get bigger and for those who are in control to preserve their power. The whole point of doing something so crazy as to buy a coin that doesn't even exist in real life, that's just a bunch of numbers in the cloud, the whole point of that was so that we as a society could do something different than the way that we'd been doing things before. So, each and every member of the cryptocurrency space needs to remind everyone else from time to time why we're here and where did we come from and where are we going to go. The beauty of Cardano is we have already achieved for the most part a decentralized brain and that momentum is pushing harder than ever. More and more scientists are waking up, more and more institutions are waking up, getting us there. The code we have, the right approach and I think we have a great competitive offering for 2021 as we go and battle the titans and that's going to be a lot of fun but we know who we are and where we're going and we're in the right places. It's so incredibly encouraging to see the stake pool operators not just be from California or Texas or New York or Canada. To see a lot of stake pool operators from the place that need the most, help everybody does matter and it means a lot to me for the people who are there but it means a lot to everybody to say that we have created an equal platform. It makes the participation of all of us so much more meaningful. We're not just talking to each other, we're talking to the world and by working together on this platform we're lifting the world up and giving people hope. That's the point, there's a lot more to do, we didn't get everything done. You never do you aspire, you work hard, you set a moon, shot and sometimes you can just get to orbit with the first go but you know what? When you build the next rocket you can go to Mars. Thank you all for being with me, thank you all for being part of this. Today was a damn good day with the announcement of Voltaire. Go to cardano.ideascale.com. You can participate in that, so end of September is going to be a good day too. There's a lot of good days to come, in between a lot of hard days, doing tasks sometimes entirely forgettable but always necessary to keep the revolution going and the movement going. I cannot wait for 2021, our best days are ahead of us, because of you. You all take care now . Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFa9zL_Dl_w Other things mentioned: https://cardano.ideascale.com/ https://www.atixlabs.com/blockchain https://www.well-typed.com/ https://www.vacuumlabs.com/ https://medium.com/interdax/what-is-taproot-and-how-will-it-benefit-bitcoin-5c8944eed8da https://medium.com/interdax/how-will-schnorr-signatures-benefit-bitcoin-b4482cf85d40 https://quantstamp.com/ https://bloxian.com/bloxian-platforms/ (TWIG) https://runtimeverification.com/firefly/ https://www.trufflesuite.com/ https://experts.illinois.edu/en/publications/prism-deconstructing-the-blockchain-to-approach-physical-limits (PrisM and not our Prism https://atalaprism.io/) Ebb-and-Flow Protocols: A Resolution of the Availability-Finality Dilemma (aka Gasper and ETH2.0 fucker) https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.04987 http://www.quviq.com/products/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schnorr_signature
A note from moderator on "hacking" topic & script kiddies
This post goes beyond the general Termux discussions but since script kiddies are the real problem for our and similar communities. I have decided to clear up the subreddit rule under number 4 (no hacking/phishing), few details on current Automod setup and announce upcoming changes to its configuration. First of all, here is our position regarding that topic:
As we respect privacy, we are not helping any people with hacking, phishing, spying and generally any activity involving unauthorized access to data or devices, disrupting someone's lives or business. Also we are not helping with installation, configuration and usage of utilities allowing to perform such actions. We do not care whether such activity is performed with or without permission, for education, pranking or whatever else. Note that ethical hacking, i.e. discovering vulnerabilities and reporting them to affected parties is still ok.
So here is a list what SHOULD NEVER BE asked on our subreddit:
How to hack Instagram, Facebook, Whatsapp, Wi-Fi, etc?
How I recover password of (my) account, server, database, phone, etc?
How do I install Blackhydra, Tool-X, Saycheese, Routersploit, Metasploit, etc?
How do I use Blackhydra, Tool-X, Saycheese, Routersploit, Metasploit, etc?
Installation of Blackhydra, Tool-X, Saycheese, Routersploit, etc failed, can you help me?
How do I create a virus?
How do I DDoS a website or phone of person X?
How do I know the SSH password of server X?
Can you help me to crack/hack an account of Facebook, Instagram, Whatsapp, etc?
How I generate a free Bitcoin?
How I generate a free credit card with money?
and any variations of these questions. And please, do not send me direct messages with same questions! - I will ignore them. Ok, now about principles how Automod is configured currently:
All links to YouTube are sent on pre-moderation. I'm reviewing each one and deciding wether it should be publically available or deleted. This was done because /termux often receives spam YouTube links from random accounts.
Submissions containing shortened URLs are being deleted. This was done because URL shorteners are obfuscate the target URL, often contain ads and spyware.
Posts containing phone numbers and emails are being deleted. Our subreddit is not a place for requesting personal discussions, advertising chat groups, etc. Users, who are involved in doxxing will be banned permanently and reported to Reddit administration.
Posts and comments are being scanned on common keywords and phrase constructions related to hacking/phishing topic. This is implemented through regular expressions and setup is currently very basic and and doesn't work if words contain typos.
Posts receiving >3 reports are automatically being deleted.
Here are Automod changes that will be implemented soon:
Questions like "How do I use Termux?", "What are use-cases of Termux?", "What I can do with Termux?" will result in automatic post deletion and link to https://wiki.termux.com/wiki/Getting_started will be sent through modmail.
Much more strict filtering of posts containing keywords and phrases related to hacking. That may result in more false-positives as certain words can be used in different contexts.
Reimplement matching rules to reduce probability of false-positives.
And this is addressed to all script kiddies present in our subreddit:
/termux is not a place where your hacky/phishy interests will receive appreciation. Seek another community (in darknet/tor) where your activity will be ok. Otherwise work hard on your skills and at least try to not look like a baby with a new toy.
UPDATE (2020.06.26): New automod configuration is active. It is more strict than was before. There can be false-positives, but most common should be already fixed.
[Attention New Users] Everything You Need To Know About MyBit
If you're new to MyBit and looking for information on how to get started, look no further. This post should answer all of the most frequently asked questions and help you find out what the MyBit project is all about.
What is MyBit?
MyBit is a DeFi (Decentralized Finance) platform that utilizes blockchain technology to allow people all over the world to invest in revenue generating assets, such as solar panels, cryptocurrency mining hardware, and Bitcoin ATMs. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg- the use cases are endless! Anything that generates revenue in a measurable, trustless way can be listed on our platform. The best part is, these assets are able to be crowdfunded by users of the MyBit platform. You don’t need to buy an entire asset all by yourself, you are able to purchase a “stake” in an asset, and any revenue generated by said asset will be distributed equally among its investors, according to the percentage of their ownership stake. This means that revenue generating assets are no longer just for the rich- they are now for the masses, the working class citizens of the world. This allows for a fair chance for everyone to let their money work for them, instead of just having the rich get richer while the masses get poorer. MyBit isn’t just for investors either. There are 3 different ways that users can utilize MyBit’s technology- the first way is investing, which we already discussed. The second way to utilize the platform is to become an “asset manager”. Not everyone has the capital to invest in an asset, so MyBit allows users to earn revenue by managing one for the investors. What exactly “managing” consists of, will vary depeding on the asset. But you can think of it as maintenance/security etc. For example, maybe you’re managing a cryptocurrency miner. You might need to check on it from time to time and make sure it’s running properly, connected to the internet, and in a safe/secure location. The third way to utilize MyBit is a solution for enterprise/IoT (Internet of Things) partners. Companies who produce IoT hardware can integrate the MyBit API into their products and expose themselves to investors all over the world with our platform.
Where can I buy MyBit?
MyBit is currently listed on the following exchanges:
MyBit is an ERC-20 token, which means you can store it in any Ethereum wallet. We recommend using a hardware wallet such as the Ledger Nano S, but you can always use MyEtherWallet, MetaMask or any other Ethereum wallet you like. Just simply send your MyBit tokens to your Ethereum address. When sending your MyBit OUT of your Ethereum wallet, you will need a small amount of ETH to cover gas fees (network costs).
Who is on the MyBit team/Who is in charge?
MyBit was originally founded by our CEO, Ian. We then moved to a DAO (Decentralized Autonomous Organization) structure so all decisions would be made by community members through a voting mechanism. There were a few issues with the DAO structure, so we are currently (as of September 1st 2020) running in a more centralized manner for the time being. However, we are planning our development of a new DAO which will be more of a Kyber-style DAO. You can read more about this here.
What is the current status of the project?
As of the time of this post (August 2nd, 2020), we are currently in the process of migrating our platform to Version 2. Version 1 was our proof of concept and was used to successfully fund our first revenue generating asset. All of the development work for Version 2 is being completed as we speak. We aim to have Version 2 launched and fully functional by late September 2020, to early October 2020. Please check the weekly updates posted on this subreddit for the most up-to-date information.
What is the utility of the MyBit token?
The MyBit token is used in order to obtain voting power in the DAO (as mentioned above), and there will also be a small percentage of tokens that are burned every time an asset is funded on the platform. This means that MyBit (MYB) is a deflationary token, and theoretically should gain value as supply decreases and demand increases.
I heard there was a token swap, but I still have the original tokens from the ICO. How do I exchange them for the new MyBit tokens?
We have a guide for that, click here to see it! Please note, if you are using MyEtherWallet to do the swap, there is 1 thing missing from the guide- once you get to the final screen, it will not allow you to submit the transaction unless you type “0x” (without the quotes) into the “extra data” field.
Where can I find more info on the MyBit project?
You can find more information in the Wiki. You can also visit our website at MyBit.io, or join us on Telegram. I will be updating this post with more information as it becomes available. If you have any other questions, feel free to PM me or find me in the Telegram. Don't forget to subscribe to this subreddit if you'd like to follow along with our journey and stay up to date on development.
About SUNWebsite | Explorer SUN is a social experiment, which focuses on the DeFi potential of TRON. Designed as the quintessential Bitcoin equivalent on the TRON network, SUN features zero VC investments, with zero PE investments, no pre-mining or reserves for the team, and is wholly operated by the community through its open-source smart contracts. Details
As a global and professional cryptocurrency exchange service provider, CoinEx was founded in December 2017 with Bitmain-led investment and has obtained a legal license in Estonia. It is a subsidiary brand of the ViaBTC Group, which owns the fifth largest BTC mining pool, which is also the largest of BCH mining, in the world. CoinEx supports perpetual contract, spot, margin trading, and other derivatives trading, and its service reaches global users in nearly 100 countries/regions with various languages available, such as Chinese, English, Korean and Russian. Click hereto register on CoinEx Reach CoinEx on TELEGRAM | TWITTER | FACEBOOK | WEBSITE | API| DOWNLOAD APP|
From Conspiracy to Fact: An analysis of the COVID-19 Pandemic, Information Control, and the New World Order (Appendix includes hundreds of citations) - PART 1
UPDATE: This article is now available as a printable PDF with embedded hyperlinks for navigation through sources. This link will be valid thru July 9: https://ufile.io/4mpkg4x6
PLEASE NOTE: This article may be updated periodically with new information and links as they become available. All referenced information and a whole lot more is indexed and linked in the relatedappendix posts.Please feel free to crosspost, share, and take from my ideas to build your own. Namaste. Part 1 | Part 2 | Appendix A | Appendix B Hello. My name is Chris. I am nobody, really. An average citizen. I am an overweight 42 year old white male from the Midwestern suburbs of the US who has been fortunate enough to live a pretty comfortable life. I used to be a freelance graphic designer with a focus on small businesses, but I'm coming to terms with the fact that that career and part of my life is more than likely over in light of current events. Oh well, it was fun while it lasted. I've always been concerned about social injustice and tried to stay politically informed, even dabbling in some activism here and there. At times I've stepped away from paying attention for my own mental health, or due to laziness, defeatism, whatever. But I've never stopped caring, or trying, to fight the good fight and do the right thing. The news recently has of course swept us all up, and touched all our lives in some way or another. The world has never seen anything like the "Coronavirus Pandemic," and it's clear that our society will be changed forever when we finally come out the other end of this mess. But I've had the luxury of time recently, and in reading the news about things that were going on, I couldn't help but notice the patterns, and that a lot of stuff didn't exactly make sense. So, here we go, with the "conspiracy theory." I hate that term, because although it's technically accurate, it's been demonized and weaponized by the media and society at large to take on a bad connotation. Tinfoil hats, alien abductions, crazy people muttering to themselves, etc. You've no doubt got a lot of images in your mind of a conspiracy theorist. And make no mistake, what I'm going to tell you here is all currently very popular conspiracy theory. However, I think that by removing opinions and conjecture from it, and focusing on facts and things that have already happened, I can present this huge amount of overwhelming, disparate information in a way that makes it less a "theory" and more a "research project." And so that is how I have approached this. I have spent the last week doing little else besides reading every news and opinion article I could find, saving and organizing hundreds of links, and assembling a coherent, logical outline to organize and present these theories, and more importantly, facts. There are a lot of less-than-reputable sites and publications out there, and I have tried when at all possible to provide sources from verifiable news sites, with a wide range of slants and focuses, to illustrate that what is happening is not part of any one particular political agenda. I hope that you take the time to check the links, really look into the information presented here, and form your own opinions. Please do not just take my word for it. To that end, there are also a few links mixed in that are labeled as having come from conspiracy. These are well-written and well-reasoned posts from other concerned citizens that I think are worth reading, and relevant to the discussion here. One last thing - If you are new to most of these ideas, the information presented here is more than likely going to seem overwhelming at first. I encourage you now, and always, to take mental health breaks for yourself, and put down your phone or turn off your computer. The information will be here when you come back. And as you'll soon understand, what is happening is an unstoppable tide, truly a force of nature at this point, and there is nothing you can do to fight it, so try your hardest to relax, put on some chill music, hug your dog, and most of all... BREATHE. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - If you start researching conspiracy theory, you're going to find a lot of information. Some much better or worse presented than others, and some much more plausible or unbelievable than others. Despite the seeming ridiculousness of some things you might read, I encourage you to always approach new information with an open mind. That said though, I have one main principle that guides all my beliefs about conspiracy theories, and that is the "Filter of Likelihood." Essentially, you have to ask yourself how possible, how likely, and how feasible a piece of information is. Furthermore, you need to ask yourself what the motivation would be. In many cases, it's quite easy to see how something makes a lot of sense based on other known info, whereas some theories seem rather implausible no matter how you look at it. I am interested only in the plausible, and where possible, the already actualized. Additionally, there's a lot to be said, and a lot that has already been written on many of these topics, so I will focus on current events and simple concepts. I will also ask you to open your mind to possibility. Please consider this as you evaluate new information:
Do you believe there are things going on in the world that you don't know about yet?
Do you believe that there is technology and science you've never heard of?
Do you believe that society is progressing at an increasing rate?
Do you believe that as populations grow, we require new societal strategies?
Do you believe that those with power and money want to retain their power and money?
Of course you believe all these things, and none of these are wild or unusual concepts. Rather, these are very basic concepts that apply to everyone, and always have. They are all part of our shared human experience, and undeniable facts of life. Populations grow, societies evolve, technology advances, and the world changes. And most important to our discussion here, people, families, and empires constantly jockey for power and control, while fighting for resources, power, fame, and... MONEY. We all hate TicketMaster, right? Who do they think they are, what the hell is this bullshit "service fee," etc. It's something everyone can get behind. But did you know that TicketMaster willingly cultivates that image? That venues, teams, and artists, in their pursuit of more money, raise fees and then let TicketMaster be the bad guy and take the heat so their reputations remain intact? There are many more people, organizations, and other entities in the world playing that same role for those who really have the money, who really call the shots. And those who call the shots work very hard and spend absolutely unfathomable amounts of money, time, and blood, to make sure that you don't ever realize who's actually taking your money. They do this in the simplest, easiest way. If you simply control information from the top down, and disseminate it when and where you see fit, you can effect great societal change without lifting a finger. Please imagine... really, try to imagine... You just read an article, saw a video, whatever, from a very, very reputable source. And it just informed you that an asteroid was 83% likely to impact the Earth next month. What would you do? What would happen in the world? Hopefully an asteroid will not hit next month, but it's important to really imagine what would happen and why, and how. Because a huge amount of information would be generated and published, people would panic, society would crumble, and the world as you know it would change forever in an instant, the moment you read that headline. Control of information is one of the most powerful tools known to mankind today. A person living in 2020 can easily encounter as much information in a day as someone in Medieval times might have encountered in a lifetime. And it comes at you from all angles, in all forms, non-stop, 24/7. Much like the water in the pipe, the information is always there, and one needs but turn it on. Disseminating the information then becomes a practice all its own, and to be sure, information processing accounts for more than half of the US GDP. And the rate at which it's spread, and way it is handled makes a huge difference in the societal repercussions. So a few different techniques are used:
The "Slow Walk" - If a large, unexpected piece of information is given suddenly, people tend to react poorly and irrationally. Also known as "letting them down easily," this technique restricts the flow of information to prevent the audience from balking or being overwhelmed
The "Steady Drip" - This technique involves keeping your audience subjected to a constant stream of the desired information, so that they become accustomed to it and it becomes "normalized"
The "Firehose" - A deluge of information flying out at full blast, designed to overwhelm the audience so that they cannot focus on anything else
It might be the greatest understatement of all time to say that there has been a lot of information passed around about COVID-19, the "Coronavirus," recently. In fact, there has never been anything like what we are currently experiencing in all of human history, and not by a long shot. And this unprecedented turn of events has caused a lot of people to react in a lot of ways, and say and do a lot of things, for better or for worse. Full disclosure: In particular, if you look up conspiracy theory, you'll see a lot of stuff suggesting that the "Coronavirus is a hoax." (You'll also find a lot of poorly-written rambling) I want to be clear that I DO NOT believe that. I am 100% sure that there is a Coronavirus, that it is making people sick, that a lot of people are dying, and that our medical professionals and many other undervalued workers are overwhelmed, and breaking their backs every day to do their best to keep their friends, families, and loved ones safe. I am extraordinarily grateful for them and admire the resolve and bravery that so many have shown in the face of this disaster. I do not think it is a hoax at all. However, I think that literally everything else that is happening surrounding the "pandemic" is. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - The Pandemic In the first week of January this year, I got sick. Really sick. I know when I got it and who I got it from, and honestly the exact moment I got it (I only was in proximity of the dude for a few minutes). He had warned me that he was really sick, and I blew it off. I started feeling sick a day or two later, and a day or two after that I felt like I was dying. Fever, chills, aches, extraordinary fatigue. And literal, nonstop, 24/7 coughing. I had every single symptom of what we now know as COVID-19. I commented to anyone who would listen that I didn't recall ever feeling that sick before in my entire life. The most memorable part of it though was that after a couple days, I completely lost my sense of smell and taste. Joked a lot about how you could feed me onions and soap cause I'd have no idea. I try to have a good attitude about being sick. I spent a week sleeping on the couch before I finally went to the doctor. She gave me a Prednisolone steroid pack (which has worked well for me in the past), some Trazodone to knock me out, and Benzonatotate for my cough. As soon as I took the first dose of steroids I started to feel pretty fucking great, and it was more or less a non-issue after that. I spoke to a lot of people about it then and after, and man, I can't tell you how many stories I personally heard from people I know that said the exact same thing. Then I started reading the same story over and over again on Reddit:
We didn't start really hearing about the Coronavirus in the media until the beginning of March, and we didn't hear about the "Pandemic" until just a couple weeks ago. And what a couple weeks it's been since then. But I am quite certain that it's been around for a lot longer and that I, and a lot of other people I know, had it - and DID NOT DIE FROM IT - way back in January. We now know that the first documented case in the US was on January 19th, but that word "documented" is so, so important here. That means that we had identified the virus, developed a test, and tested a person with the symptoms that day. It does NOT mean that was when the virus reached the United States. How sick do you have to be before you take a day off work? Before you go to the doctor? With America's healthcare system or lack thereof, it's almost certain that many people had this virus before we determined what it was, and how infectious it really was. There is also the matter of the statistics of severity vs the regular flu. This is a highly contentious topic and I am no medical expert, and do not wish to make any assertions. However, what I can tell you from my personal experience is this: I had a horrible "flu" in January, got basic medicine, got better. So, either I had the flu, or perhaps I did indeed have the Coronavirus. We will never know because I was never tested. But the important thing is that it doesn't matter. Either I (and many others) had the Coronavirus and it did not kill us (calling into question the severity of the infection) or we just had a bad cold or flu, but it had the exact same symptoms as COVID-19 (calling into question the extent of Coronavirus diagnoses). But logically, one of those two statements is true. Furthermore, the data keeps changing, and I don't mean increasing on a daily basis. I mean up and down, back and forth, it is deadly or maybe it isn't, etc. On January 14 the WHO told you it couldn't spread from human to human. But then on Jan 19 we saw the first case of Coronavirus in the United States. Then it turns out that the Wuhan market outbreak began earlier in December. And then it's an "epidemic," but most people will only get mild symptoms. What are you supposed to believe? And it sure does seem to come at you as a firehose, and it's hard to even think about anything because OHMYGODTHECORONAVIRUS! But let's stop and look a couple basic facts. As a matter of fact, I'm going to let Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi explain this one to you. This is a very informative 10 minute video, watch it: Sucharit Bhakdi - Very clear math showing that the COVID statistics are being manipulated So 80% of people only experience mild symptoms, and we're crashing the economy for this? The statistics aren't any more extreme than many other illnesses we've had over time, and we're crashing the economy for this? It doesn't make sense until you consider that there are other factors besides just the virus at play. Wolfgang Wodard - Explaining how the statistics are being manipulated to cause panic The media, and society at large is inundating you with terrifying information about the Coronavirus. But if it's not as bad as we originally thought, then why? We don't freak out about every illness that comes along, and we've certainly never in the history of civilization had over 1/3 of the global population locked down under mandatory quarantine. And then there's the debate about where the virus came from. We believe it came from a meat market in China, under unsanitary conditions. The science behind a coronavirus making the leap from one species to another is well-established and researched, and it is a very likely scenario. There are also conspiracy theories that state that China released it on its people intentionally, or even that the US military released it in China. Again, we will never know exactly where this Coronavirus came from. It may be natural, it may be man made, and there are very plausible paths for both. I don't know what to believe myself. So here I ask you to make your own judgement based on likelihood. What we do know though is that the state of the world this virus has been unleashed on has played a major factor in its spread. In 1950 the global population was 2.5 billion, and that has exploded to almost 8 billion people in 2020. As a matter of fact, population growth has been exponential since about the time of the Industrial Revolution. With all these people on the planet there are sure to be many disagreements and conflicts, and there indeed have been. As a matter of fact, 2019 saw global protests on an unprecedented scale, in Hong Kong, France, Syria, and many other countries. Citizens have literally been fighting police and military with rocks, clubs, arrows, and molotov cocktails. Did you know that? Despite my seeing headlines and pictures every day of the riots in Hong Kong, I have been shocked to learn that multiple of my close friends, intelligent and aware people, had no knowledge whatsoever of the protests even existing. But that is far from a coincidence; rather, it is quite by design. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Billionaires and Coincidences Another major talking point over the last 5 to 10 years has been the "1%" - the handful of super-rich individuals who posess and control the vast majority of the Earth's wealth and resources. Where it used to just be a numerical term, "Billionaire" is now a dirty word, and one of the nastiest. We all hate billionaires. They are evil, and profit off the exploitation of the rest of the world. The "Illuminati" we call them, in pursuit of a "New World Order." Crazy stuff, right? Mysterious symbols and people in black robes doing nefarious things in secret meetings, and running the world from behind the scenes. We love the Illuminati, it's a huge pop culture thing now. The subject of endless speculation, they are made fun of in the media, movies, and now Taco Bell commercials. It's so far fetched it could never really be true. And the fact that you think that is by design as well. So, we don't know where the Coronavirus came from, but it's certainly here, and there are lot of other things unfolding in the world around it. Many different current events from all different places and fields of study. Some of it seems a little too coincidental. It is certainly very coincidental that this economically destructive Coronavirus entered the world right as there were global uprisings, protests in the street, and a growing public hatred for billionaires. Well, here are a few other coincidences: Hundreds of CEOs of major companies stepped down from their positions in recent months. Multiple US Senators sold stock right before the market crashed. Even the boss of the New York Stock Exchange sold his own stock right before the crash. Did they know something they weren't telling us? Here's another coincidence. In 2010, The Rockefeller Foundation published a selection of future-predicting scenarios in the name of "exploring the ways that technology and development could co-evolve." One of these four scenarios, entitled "Lock Step," eerily predicts a global viral pandemic and the resulting hypothetical consequences, which almost exactly mirrors the COVID-19 pandemic we are in the midst of today. Also coincidental: The first case of COVID-19 was diagnosed in China on November 17th, 2019. Literally one month earlier, The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation hosted Event 201, a high-level pandemic exercise on October 18, 2019, in New York, NY. In this exercise, they discuss the potential implications and consequences of a novel Coronavirus, including an economic crash, martial law, and of particular interest, the control of information. (You can view some published highlights here) The World Economic Forum is comprised of the richest of the rich. The 1%. The Billionaires. CEO's, politicians, business owners, and many other powerful and influential figures. They meet regularly to discuss topics of global concern, and strongly control the dissemination of information. And of primary concern to many of them is maintaining their wealth and power in a rapidly-changing world. And finally, here's one more coincidence: At the exact same time as the Event 201 exercise, The World Military Games was held in Wuhan, China, Oct 18-27, 2019. It was the largest military sports event ever to be held in China, with nearly 10,000 athletes from over 100 countries competing in 27 sports. Wuhan China was, as we now believe, the source of our current global COVID-19 outbreak. Whether you think it is a "conspiracy" or not, that is all certainly coincidental, to say the least. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - "Why didn't I hear about any of this?" That's an excellent question, and one that likely has multiple answers. For starters, how much do you really pay attention? Where do you get your news from? Do you research things you hear or just accept them on hearsay? Critical thinking skills are paramount in making sense of the chaos unfolding all around us. As I mentioned before, I can tell you that I personally know multiple people who had no clue whatsoever about the riots in Hong Kong last year. As you read this, you may be one of them. And it may seem like something that is happening far away, and "could never happen here." Or you may have been aware of it but just that it was happening. But please, consider for a moment: millions of average citizens risked their lives and safety in the streets of Hong Kong for months on end, fighting police and military, and transforming the city they lived in into a warzone. WHY? Why would people do something like that? Regardless of their motivations, that many people were banding together to fight for something they believed in. And that is worth considering. It's not really your fault though that you may not catch wind of all this news. The "mainstream media" that you hear about all the time deliberately controls information - downplaying threats and overreacting to silly things - in order to make sure that you hear the version of the news that they want you to hear. Did you know that only 6 corporations control 90% of the media In America? That number is reduced from 50 companies in the 80's. And literally all the news you see on TV, at the very least, is 100% owned and controlled by these companies. Lately, distrust is growing for cable news networks, and many people turn to their local hometown station for trusted news. The problem with that though is that your hometown station is probably owned by Sinclair Media, one of the most powerful broadcast networks in the country that you've never heard of. Please watch this very brief video, illustrating the chokehold that Sinclair Media maintains over your nightly local news broadcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWLjYJ4BzvI Of course, not every piece of news is pre-programmed but a lot is. The real news is out there, but sometimes you have to look a little deeper than the infographics on TV news. Even if information is being directed from the top down, the boots on the ground tend to be passionate people with a variety of interests and agendas, and they are still doing their best to do real journalism despite corporate oversight. Think of those who are directing the information as steering an impossibly massive ship with a rudder. You can slowly adjust the course of direction, however it is slow to react. If you want to stop, you have to start thinking about stopping wayyy ahead of time. And similarly, once it gets underway, it is then influenced by an inertia all its own. Micro controls and adjustments aren't really possible. Our society is this giant ship. There are 8 billion people on this earth - that is 8000 million. An incomprehensible number that grows rapidly every day. As civilization grows and advances, so does our medicine, our technology, our cultural norms. These are all natural processes that are necessary to manage an increasing number of societies all around the globe. And many of the advances we're making have exciting potential benefits for humanity, although as with all tools, they also inherently possess the potential for abuse. Here are some other things happening in society right now, some you may be aware of and many you may not:
RealID - The Real ID law requires people to show security-enhanced IDs to pass through airport security checkpoints or to enter certain federal facilities.
Traffic Cameras - Most people know that there are traffic cameras in an increasing number of areas, some of which can assess your speed and issue you a ticket automatically.
Automation Everywhere - Beyond assembly lines, robots are continually performing more types of tasks from ever more companies, replacing human employees at an increasing rate.
Automated Trucks - Autonomous trucks are coming soon that can see forward over a half mile, farther than any other autonomous system in the world, and run during the day, the night and even in the rain.
Global Satellite Internet - Elon Musk's SpaceX recently launched its fourth batch of internet-beaming satellites, as the company builds a broadband internet business by deploying thousands of satellites into orbit
Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency - As digital payments become more and more prevalent, digital currency uses cryptography to secure and verify transactions as well as to control the creation of new units of a particular cryptocurrency.
Voluntary Nanochipping - People are having microchips implanted into their bodies so that they don't need to carry key cards, IDs, and even train tickets.
Programmable Viruses - As antibiotic-resistant bacteria becomes a greater problem, viruses are being engineered to fight the bacteria in targeted ways
Facial Recognition Technology - Airports are using facial-recognition cameras to confirm passenger identity. Mobile phone makers are using face recognition for biometric security. Retailers are using it to prevent violence and crime, and for advertising.
Thermal Scanners - Airports, casinos, and grocery stores are screening passengers for sickness. In China, this data is being used to control traffic.
ID2020 - Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates is developing human-implantable capsules that have ‘digital certificates’ which can contain financial data, medical records, tracking tech, and more.
There is an interesting chicken or egg relationship between science fiction and real world science. Sci-fi writers are inspired by the real science of the day, then they apply their creativity to imagine what might be in the future. Young scientists encounter these fantastical ideas and think they are worth pursuing, and then set about to make them a reality, and the cycle continues. Futuristic concepts are then preempted and introduced through the media to the conscious mind, as we include them in books, movies, TV, video games, and more. Eventually we start seeing headlines of these new technologies and developments happening in other places, usually Japan and China first due to their prevalence in the industrial and technological sectors of our global economy. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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